Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of December 4 And December 11

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of December 4

December 4

Factory Orders - October

-0.4%

1.4

-0.4

Durable Goods Orders

-1.2

2.0

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.4

0.8

December 5

International Trade - October

-$47.5B

-43.5

-47.1

PMI Services Index

54.7

54.7

54.7

ISM Services - November

59.6

60.1

59.0

December 6

ADP Employment Report - November

205K

235.0

192

Productivity - Q3 (r)

3.3%

3.0(p)

3.3

Unit Labor Costs

0.2

0.5

0.3

December 7

Initial Unemployment Claims

240K%

238

240

Consumer Credit - October

$18.0B

20.8

17.6

December 8

Nonfarm Payrolls - November

250K

261K

185

Private

245

252

183

Manufacturing

25

24

20

Unemployment

4.0%

4.1

4.1

Average Workweek

34.4Hr

34.4

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.0

0.3

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Dec (p)

99.0

98.5

98.8

Wholesale Inventories - October (r)

-0.4

-0.4(p)

-0.1

Week of December 11

December 12

Producer Price Index - November

0.3%

0.4

PPI less food, energy and trade services

0.2

0.2

Treasury Budget - November

-$135.0B

-63.2

December 13

Consumer Price Index - November

0.4%

0.1

Core CPI

0.2

0.2

FMOC

1.375

1.125

December 14

Retail Sales - October

0.5%

0.2

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.7

0.1

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.5

0.3

Export Prices -  November

0.3%

0.0

Import Prices

0.8

0.2

Business Inventories - October

-0.1%

0.0

December 15

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

20.0

19.2

Industrial Production - November

0.3%

0.9

Capacity Utilization

77.2

77.0