Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of August 27 And September 3

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of August 27

August 27

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - July

0.35

0.43

0.38

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

28.0

32.3

28.0

August 28

International Trade in Goods - July

-$69.6B

-68.3

-69.1

Wholesale Inventories - July (a)

0.1%

0.1

0.1

S&P Case/Shiller Index - June

Twenty City M/M

0.2%

0.2

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.7

0.7

Twenty City Y/Y

6.5

6.5

Consumer Confidence - August

127.4

127.4

126.5

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

19

20

19

August 29

GDP - Q2 (p)

4.0%

4.1

4.0

Pending Home Sales Index - July

106.9

106.9

106.9

August 30

Initial Unemployment Claims

213K

210

214

Personal Income - July

0.3%

0.4

0.4

Personal Spending

0.4

0.4

0.4

August 31

Chicago PMI

64.0

65.5

63.5

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - August (r)

95.3

95.3

95.3

Week of September 3

September 4

ISM (Mfg) - August

57.9

58.1

Construction Spending - July

0.4%

-1.1

September 5

Auto Sales* - August

17.0

16.77

International Trade - July

-$47.6B

-46.3

September 6

ADP Employment Report - August

190

219

Productivity - Q2 (r)

2.8%

2.9

Unit Labor Costs

-0.8

-0.9

ISM Services - August

56.7

55.7

Factory Orders - June

-0.6%

0.7

Durable Goods Orders

-1.7

-1.7

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.5

0.5

September 7

Nonfarm Payrolls - August

200K

157

Private

190

170

Manufacturing

25

37

Unemployment

3.8%

3.9

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.3