Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of August 13 and August 20

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of August 13

August 14

NFIB Small Business Optimisim Index - July

107.5

107.2

107

Export Prices - July

0.1%

0.3

0.2

Import Prices

0.1

-0.4

0.0

August 15

Retail Sales - July

0.3%

0.5

0.1

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.5

0.4

0.4

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.5

0.3

0.4

New York Fed Manufacturing Index

20.6

22.6

20.0

Productivity - Q2 (p)

2.5%

0.4

2.5

Unit Labor Costs

-0.4

-0.4

-.02

Industrial Production - July

0.3%

0.6

0.3

Manufacturing

0.4

0.8

0.3

Capacity Utilization

78.2

78.0

78.2

Business Inventories - June

0.2%

0.4

0.1

NAHB Index

69

68

69

August 16

Initial Unemployment Claims

216

213

215

Housing Starts - July

1.256M

1.173

1.271

Building Permits

1.305

1.273

1.304

Philadelphia Fed Survey

22.8

25.7

22.3

August 17

Leading Economic Indicators

0.5%

0.5

0.4

Michigan Consumer Sentiment (p)

98.3

97.9

97.9

Week of August 20

August 22

Existing Home Sales - July

5.509M

5.380

August 23

Initial Unemployment Claims

FHFA Home Price Index - June

0.6%

0.2

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

55.3

55.3

PMI Services Flash

57.0

56.0

New Home Sales - July

649K

631

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

25

23

August 24

Durable Goods Sales - July

1.5%

0.8