Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of April 24 And May 1

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

`

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of April 24

April 24

Chicago Fed National Economy Activity - March

0.4

0.34

0.3

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

18

16.9

15.0

April 25

FHFA House Price Index - February

0.5%

0.0

0.4

S&P Case/Shiller Index - February

Twenty City M/M

0.1%

0.2

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.8

0.9

0.6

Twenty City Y/Y

5.8

5.7%

5.8

PMI Services Flash Index

53.6

52.8

New Home Sales - March

580K

592

584K

Consumer Confidence

124.0

125.6

123.6

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

16.0

22.0

16.0

April 27

Initial Unemployment Claims

247K

244

243

Durable Goods Sales - March

0.8%

1.8

1.1

International Trade in Goods - February

-$65.8B

64.8

-65.3

Pending Home Sales Index - March

111.5

112.3

112

Kansas City Manufacturing Index

16

20

April 28

GDP - Q1 (a)

1.3%

2.1

1.1

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

2.1

2.1

2.1

Employment Cost Index - Q4

0.5%

0.5

0.6

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.1

2.2

Chicago PMI

57.0

57.7

56.5

Michigan Consumer Sentiment (r)

98.2

98.0

98.0

Week of May 1

May 1

Personal Income - March

0.3%

0.4

Personal Spending

0.2

0.1

ISM (Mfg) - April

56.6

57.2

ISM Prices

70.5

Construction Spending - March

0.5%

0.8

May 2

Auto Sales* - April

17.05M

16.56

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

May 3

ADP Employment Report - April

190K

263

PMI Services Index

52.5

ISM Services - April

55.8

55.2

FMOC Announcement

0.875%

0.875

May 4

International Trade - March

-$45.0B

-43.5

Productivity - Q1 (p)

0.0%

1.3

Unit Labor Costs

2.5

1.7

May 5

Nonfarm Payrolls - April

195K

98

Private

190

89

Manufacturing

10

11

Unemployment

4.5%

4.5

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.3

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

Consumer Credit - March

$16.5B

15.2