Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks May 1 And May 8

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of May 1

May 1

Personal Income - March

0.3%

0.4

0.3

Personal Spending

0.2

0.1

0.1

ISM (Mfg) - April

56.6

57.2

56.5

ISM Prices

70.5

Construction Spending - March

0.5%

0.8

0.5

May 2

Auto Sales* - April

17.1M

16.56

17.2

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

May 3

ADP Employment Report - April

190K

263

170

PMI Services Index

52.5

52.5

52.3

ISM Services - April

55.9

55.2

55.8

FMOC Announcement

0.875%

0.875

0.875

May 4

Initial Jobless Claims

247

257

246

International Trade - March

-$44.0B

-43.5

-44.5

Productivity - Q1 (p)

-0.6%

1.3

0.0

Unit Labor Costs

3.1

1.7

2.5

Factory Orders - March

0.3%

1.0

0.4

Durable Goods Orders

0.7

1.8

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.2

0.2

May 5

Nonfarm Payrolls - April

195K

98

185

Private

190

89

180

Manufacturing

10

11

12.5

Unemployment

4.5%

4.5

4.6

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.3

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

0.3

Consumer Credit - March

$16.0B

15.2

15.6

Week of May 8

May 9

Wholesale Inventories - March

0.0%

0.2

May 10

Export Prices - April

0.1%

0.2

Import Prices

0.2

-0.2

Treasury Budget - April

175.8

176.2

May 11

Producer Price Index - April

0.2%

-0.1

PPI less food, energy and trade services

0.2

0.1

May 12

Consumer Price Index - April

0.3%

-0.3

Core CPI

0.2

-0.1

Retail Sales - April

0.4%

-0.2

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.3

0

Retail Sales,ex autos and gas

0.3

0.3

Business Inventories - March

0.1%

0.3

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - May (p)

98.0

97.0