Answer Via 20 Charts: The market’s reaction to Jackson Hole has revived an uncomfortable question: could investors be facing another 2022-style inflation and interest-rate shock?
This week, we compare the current evidence with the conditions that preceded the 2022 bear market. We examine what short-term and intermediate-term bonds are signaling about inflation, how today’s Fed backdrop differs from a traditional tightening cycle, and whether market leadership is beginning to reflect a meaningful change in investor expectations.
We also review high-yield bonds, equal-weight stocks, market breadth, the AI/technology trade, long-term trend structure, and several key stock market ratios to determine whether the weight of the evidence is deteriorating—or simply experiencing normal volatility inside a larger bullish trend.
Rather than assuming history will repeat, the objective is to identify the observable characteristics that made 2022 dangerous and ask a more useful question:
Are those same conditions actually present today?
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