D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) reports Q3 2026 results on Tuesday, November 10, before the open, with the call at 8:00 a.m. ET. The stock closed at $10.09 on November 2, down 61% this year.
The company has already told investors what Q3 looks like. On the August call, CFO John Markovich said both annealing systems due this year would likely ship in the fourth quarter, so third-quarter revenue would be "up modestly" from Q2's $3.08M. The consensus of $4.34M (16 analysts, October 13 snapshot) would be 41% growth in a quarter.
Our call: Q3 revenue of $3.4M, below consensus and in line with the guide. The larger gap is in Q4.
Building Q3 from its three lines
$M | Q2 2026 actual | Q3 2026 our forecast |
|---|---|---|
QCaaS (Leap cloud) | 1.9 | 2.0 |
Professional services | 0.9 | 1.0 |
Systems and other | 0.3 | 0.4 |
Total revenue | 3.08 | 3.4 |
D-Wave recognizes a system sale over the installation period, by costs incurred. With both systems shipping in Q4, Q3 carries only site preparation, as Q2 did. Revenue falls about 9% from Q3 2025, but that quarter included $1.8M from upgrading the Jülich system; QCaaS on our numbers rises from $1.4M to $2.0M.
Two systems ship in Q4, one is a sale
The Florida Atlantic University system is a $20M purchase. The other system arrived in Como, Italy, on October 15. D-Wave's release says Swiss Quantum Technology "acquired 50% of the system's capacity for five years and holds an option to purchase the full system." That is the €10M agreement signed in late 2025, which Markovich said "will be recognized ratably over 5 years, commencing when the system becomes operational". It adds about €0.5M a quarter, not a system sale.
The Q4 consensus is $32.2M. Florida's whole remaining value (about $19.2M), the recurring business (about $3.1M) and the Italian agreement (about $0.3M) add up to about $22.6M, so roughly $9.6M is not identified in the filings. The CFO also said system revenue is recognized "on average, over a two-quarter period", with carryover into 2027. Assuming 60% of Florida lands in Q4, we forecast Q4 at $14.9M and the year at $24.2M, against a $42.5M full-year consensus whose lowest estimate is $33.2M.
The CHIPS award is not revenue
D-Wave signed a $100M CHIPS Act agreement on September 4 and issued 7.1M shares to the Department of Commerce at $14.093. The 10-Q says government grants "have historically offset a portion of research and development costs". The EPS consensus of -$0.094 implies a loss about $13M smaller than Q2's $48.0M; an R&D offset is the visible way to get there. Revenue could miss while EPS beats.
Positioning
Short interest was 79.1M shares on October 15, about 21% of roughly 376M shares outstanding, with 5.0 days to cover.
The CEO sold 687,627 shares at $26.13 in June, and the CFO sold about $7.6M of stock in June before announcing his retirement in August.
The at-the-money straddle for November 13, the first expiry after the report, cost about 16% of the share price at the November 2 close.
What to watch
Q3 bookings, and whether a second system sale for 2026 is named.
When the Italian system became operational, and whether SQT signals interest in buying it outright, which would close most of the Q4 gap.
How much CHIPS money was drawn and where it is booked.
The full D-Wave preview has the backlog reconciliation, the scenarios, the balance sheet and the charts.
Data: D-Wave SEC filings, earnings call transcripts, FINRA short interest and analyst consensus, processed by Equibles.
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