Cumulative Percent Growth In Private NFP From BLS, ADP Compared

Menzie Chinn
Menzie Chinn
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin •

This article compares cumulative private payroll-growth from Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES) and ADP data, highlighting diverging trajectories and the impact of upcoming revisions on understanding employment trends.

Person Holding Blue and Clear Ballpoint Pen

Image Source: Pexels
 

From the latest release:
 

Figure 1: Private NFP from CES (blue), implied benchmark revision private NFP (light blue), from ADP (tan), in logs 2025M01=0. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, BLS, and author’s calculations.
 

Note that the September (as well as August) BLS numbers will be revised as a matter of course, so the recent trajectory may well change. ADP numbers are also revised, but to a smaller extent.

More By This Author:

Updated Business Cycle Indicators, Including Employment
Business Cycle Indicators and Nowcasts
Rejoinder To Comments On House Price Affordability

More from this Author

Estimates Of Q2 Chinese GDP

Estimates Of Q2 Chinese GDP

Menzie Chinn •
Back To May, Cost Of Living-Wise

Back To May, Cost Of Living-Wise

Menzie Chinn •
Up, Up And Away: TIPS Yields

Up, Up And Away: TIPS Yields

Menzie Chinn •

Comments

Back to all articles