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The back half of September into the first couple of weeks of October saw jobless claims rebound off their lows. Last week saw that rebound grow with a modestly upward revision to 211K. However, there was a substantial improvement this week with claims dropping to 198K and back below 200K for the first time since the last week of January. That compares to expectations for a reading of 210K.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, that improvement is even more impressive. Claims totaled a meager 181K. For the comparable week of the year, the only years with lower readings were 1967 through 1969. While the one-week move is impressive and indicates claims remain at historically strong levels, this time of year has historically seen claims drift higher into year's end.
While initial jobless claims had a positive move, continuing claims are sending a conflicting signal. After seasonal adjustment, continuing claims have risen for four weeks in a row and are now at the highest levels since early July.
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