Consumption Per Capita Relative To Trend

Menzie Chinn
By Menzie Chinn of Econbrowser
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin •

Are you better off than you expected four years ago? I use trend growth 2016-2019 to figure out what is “expected”.

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Image Source: Pexels

Are you better of than you expected four years ago? I use trend growth 2016-2019 to figure out what is “expected”.

Figure 1: Consumption per capita in Ch.2017$, calculated using consumption divided by population (blue), and 2016-19 (stochastic) trend (tan). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, Census via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.

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