Consumer Sentiment Drops In September To Just Above Record Lows

Republican attitudes declined the most, but from higher levels.

Please consider the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final September report, released today.

Sentiment Key Points

Consumer sentiment ticked down less than four index points in September, reaching the lowest reading in four months and down 15% from January 2026.
Views of current and year-ahead expected personal finances both weakened about 10% this month, with concerns over high prices continuing to climb.
The short-run outlook for business conditions plunged amid renewed worries that elevated fuel prices and re-escalating trade disputes could pass through to the economy as a whole.
Overall, interviews reveal broad agreement across the political spectrum that the outlook for the economy has weakened since the beginning of the year.

Partisan Sentiment Changes

After particularly large declines in sentiment this month, Republican sentiment is now 20% lower than January 2026.
Democrats are down 13% over the same period.

Inflation Outlook

Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped from 4.0% last month to 4.6% this month, the highest reading since June.
The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% seen in February before the Iran conflict began, along with all 2024 readings.
Long-run inflation expectations ticked up to 3.4%, ending three consecutive months at 3.3%. These expectations remain higher than their 2024 range of 2.8% to 3.2%.

Current Conditions vs Expectations