Something curious is going on with Chinese retail sales. In contrast to the official consumer confidence index, which has been booming - around multi-decade highs (highest since the early-1990's), retail sales growth has been on a declining path and was particularly weak in May. But one detail sticks out to me: headline retail sales YTD were up 9.5% vs 2017, yet online sales were up 30%.
Online sales, by the official statistics, account for around 1/5th of total retail sales - and this could be understated, and one reason for the apparent divergence against consumer confidence.
As important as the booming online sales are though, the property market has been softening(which I have been talking about for a while) - and property still remains a key driver for the Chinese economy, so it may also be a reflection of actual slowing in activity also.
Comments
Log in or sign up to join the conversation.