BTC’s link to oil turned sharply negative in October. The U.S. election calendar may explain why. Bitcoin fell 1.9% to $81,755 on Thursday, October 22, while Brent crude jumped 3.2% to $112.31 a barrel.
The New York Times reported that U.S. and Israeli forces have drawn up plans to resume strikes on Iran once the November 3 midterm elections are over. The ETF money didn’t help. U.S. spot BTC funds took in about $1.07 billion from Monday to Wednesday.
So how tightly is the Bitcoin price tied to oil now, and is Washington simply waiting for the votes to be counted?
How Correlated Are BTC and Oil Right Now?
Tightly, and in opposite directions. Over the last 30 trading days, the correlation between BTC’s and Brent’s daily moves sits at −0.59, the lowest reading since at least June 2025. A reading of −1 would mean they always move in opposite directions.
That is new. Over two years, the same measure is −0.04, which is close to no link at all. Since the Iran war began on February 28, it is −0.19. October is when oil days became BTC’s bad days.
The two can still trend the same way over months. Brent is up 55% since the war began, and BTC is up 24% since February 27. It’s day-to-day that they now clash.
Is the U.S. Waiting Until After the Midterms to Hit Iran?
That is what the plans suggest. The Times, citing U.S. officials, described a “short but intensive” campaign against Iran’s nuclear sites, missiles, and energy infrastructure, timed for after the vote. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed it with Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week.
Nothing is approved. Trump has vetoed a return to major combat several times this year, and the White House said it doesn’t comment on plans “that may or may not exist.” Oil traders aren’t waiting to find out. Brent is up about $9 since Trump’s October 8 post.
The midterms are also influencing Bitcoin and oil prices. How? Through gas prices. Gasoline averaged $4.36 a gallon earlier this month, AAA data shows, and Trump has floated suspending the federal gas tax. Trump’s approval hit a record-low 31%, with Americans worried about gasoline prices.
That gives the White House a reason to keep oil calm until November 3. On October 8, Trump posted that “we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections,” and Brent fell to $103 the same day.
Why Doesn’t ETF Buying Lift Bitcoin?
Bitcoin ETF Flow
Because rates matter more. BlackRock’s IBIT took in $665.2 million on Monday alone, Farside data shows, yet BTC is barely changed from a week ago.
Oil feeds inflation, and inflation feeds rates. September’s consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier, with gasoline up 9.1% in the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, and the 10-year Treasury yield sits above 5.1%. When bonds pay 5%, a coin that pays nothing needs a lot of buying just to stand still.
BTC still trades like a stock. Over the past month, its correlation with the S&P 500 is +0.60.
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