Back To May, Cost Of Living-Wise

According to Cleveland Fed nowcasts today:

Figure 1: CPI (blue), core CPI (red), both in logs 2025M01=0. July is July 23 m/m nowcast. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.

These nowcasts incorporate EIA’s gasoline price data through 7/22, as well as oil prices.

In terms of the Fed’s preferred measure:

Figure 2: PCE deflator (blue), core PCE deflator (red), both in logs 2025M01=0. June and July are July 23 y/y nowcast. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.

Nowcasts are only nowcasts. However, with gasoline prices rising without apparent stop (see graph below), it seems unlikely that these nowcasts will prove to be overshooting.