Tokyo inflation is the data highlight of the week. But the main event will be gauging how easing geopolitical tensions and a strong tech boom boost sentiment. Price pressures are likely to accelerate amid higher energy prices and firming demand-side pressures.

Japan: Government measures keep inflation below 2%
Tokyo’s June consumer price index is the key release next week. We expect headline inflation to rise modestly to 1.7% year-on-year. The government’s price cap on gasoline and renewed utility subsidies should keep inflation below 2%. Yet, JPY weakness and second-round effects from higher energy prices should add to inflationary pressures on both goods and services prices.
China: A quiet week after the May data dump
China updates its loan prime rates on Monday. Both 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates will remain unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively. No major data releases are expected from China, following the recent data dump showing the domestic economy slowing further in May.
Taiwan: Export orders, IP to show continued strength amid tech boom
Taiwan releases export orders data on Tuesday. We expect May export orders to continue their strong run, rising to 50.7% YoY. On Wednesday, we look for industrial production to remain little changed at 14.2% YoY. Growth is likely to remain heavily imbalanced, tilted toward semiconductors and computers and electronic products.
South Korea : easing political tensions, strong tech to boost confidence
South Korea releases consumer and business sentiment data, likely showing an improvement amid easing geopolitical tensions and strong performance in the tech sector. Consumer sentiment could rise further toward historical highs, supported by equity market rallies and government cash-payout programs. Business surveys should also advance, though with manufacturing showing a somewhat stronger gain than non-manufacturing sectors. The recent US–Iran peace deal is likely to improve confidence, with positive implications for household consumption and investment.
Singapore: Price pressures expected to accelerate
After a softer April print, Singapore’s headline CPI is expected to pick up in May. This would mainly reflect elevated food prices and the lagged pass-through of prior fuel price increases. Core inflation should accelerate as well, highlighting robust underlying demand conditions amid strong economic growth.
Key events in Asia next week





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