Archer Aviation reports Q3 2026 results on Monday, November 9, after the close, with the webcast at 2:00 p.m. Pacific. The stock closed at $4.17 on November 2, 39% below the $6.79 it reached the day after Archer agreed to buy three businesses from Boeing.
Archer has no aircraft revenue yet. It does own an airport. Since buying Hawthorne Airport in Los Angeles in December 2025 and its fueling business on April 1, it has booked hangar leases, aviation fuel and ground handling: $1.6M in Q1 and $5.0M in Q2.
Our call: Q3 revenue of $5.3M, above the $3.57M consensus (7 analysts, October 14 snapshot, range $2.0M to $6.0M), and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $185M, the middle of the guide.
Why the revenue line beats
The Q2 10-Q splits Hawthorne revenue three ways: fueling and ground services $3.0M (Archer bought 75% of the operator on April 1, so Q2 was a full quarter), leases $1.0M and other $1.0M. Management expects both hangar and fueling revenue "to increase as we bring additional spaces into service". We model $3.2M, $1.1M and $1.0M.
$M | Q2 2026 actual | Q3 2026 our forecast |
|---|---|---|
Fueling and ground services | 3.0 | 3.2 |
Leases | 1.0 | 1.1 |
Other | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Total revenue | 5.0 | 5.3 |
A $3.57M consensus needs revenue to drop almost 30% from Q2, which only fits a model built before the fueling deal closed. The amounts are tiny next to the spending, but a beat on a line the Street has not updated is still a beat.
The Boeing deal is the 2027 forecast
Archer is buying Wisk, SkyGrid and Insitu from Boeing for stock: shares equal to 19.75% of its Class A count before closing, about 152M shares, plus two warrants for $100M of stock each at $13.00 and $17.88. Archer says Insitu "alone will add over $200M in annual revenue". That is why the 2027 consensus runs from $35M to $325.5M: some analysts include the deal and some don't, so the $138M average is a blend rather than a forecast. Management targets a close by year-end.
Spending and cash
The adjusted EBITDA loss guide is $170M to $200M a quarter, against $177.1M in Q2; research and development reached $186.0M in Q2, up from $122.4M a year earlier. Cash and short-term investments were $1,560.6M on June 30. With about $160M of operating cash use and $37M of capital spending, we estimate about $1.36B at September 30, roughly seven quarters of runway before any raise or Insitu's cash flow.
Positioning
Short interest reached 114.8M shares on October 15, 14.9% of the 770M shares outstanding and up 22% in a month. Options priced a move of about 9% either way by November 13, the first expiry after the report. The last insider open-market purchases were in late 2024.
What to watch on the call
Any update on the Boeing closing date and on how Insitu will be reported; whether the loss guide holds for Q4; the pace of eIPP flights and Midnight testing; and Hawthorne revenue now that the fueling business has a full year ahead.
The full Archer preview has the Boeing share math, the cash bridge, management's quotes and the charts.
Data: Archer SEC filings, earnings call transcripts, FINRA short interest and analyst consensus, processed by Equibles.
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