CPI deflated and using AIER “Everyday Price Index”:
Figure 1: Average hourly earnings deflated by CPI (blue), by AIER’s “Everyday Price Index” (EPI) (red), both in January 2025$. April CPI is from Cleveland Fed nowcast of 5/11; AIER EPI for April is obtained from a 2023M04-2026 regression of log first differences of EPI on gas prices. Source: BLS, EIA via FRED, AIER EPI, and author’s calculations.
The EPI-gas price regression has an adjusted R2 of 0.87, SER of 0.002, with a statistically significant coefficient of 0.10 (each 1% increase in gasoline prices is associated with a 0.1% increase in the AIER EPI).
Former CEA chair Jared Berstein has more on the “vibe” aspect of earnings.
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