Initial jobless claims had been in an almost relentless uptrend from the end of March through early August. Since then, they have completely reversed.
This week initial claims declined another -6,000 to 222,000, and the 4 week average declined -7,500 to 233,000. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, increased another 36,000 to 1,473,000, a 5 month high:
There was a little caterwauling on CNBC about the increase in continued claims. I am not concerned in the slightest. As I wrote above, they lag initial claims. They will reverse lower in the next few weeks.
Lower gas prices continue to bring lots of good short term news to the economy. I tipped off Menzie Chinn of Econbrowser to their correlation to consumer confidence and presidential approval, and he helpfully calculated their correlation, with graphs, in this post.
I want to caution that the long term outlook in next year remains negative; but as noted above, this takes the pressure off the short term.
More By This Author:
On Labor Day 2022, How Well Is Labor Doing?
August Jobs Report: Despite A Good Headline Number, The Decelerating Trend Resumes
A respite in manufacturing in August, continued decline in construction in July
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