An Interesting Correlation: Heavy Truck Sales Growth As Recession Indicator

Image Source: Pixabay
 

Following up on the drop in heavy truck sales in August, here’s the prediction from a simple probit of recession (NBER peak-to-trough) on current 12-month heavy truck sales growth:
 

Figure 1: Estimated probability of NBER recession using probit on heavy truck sales growth (blue). Red line at current value of 0.28. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: NBER, and author’s calculations.
 

Notice, using this model and a 28% threshold yields only on false positive: 2016.

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