ADP Payrolls Weak Again, Small Employers With 20-49 Employees Hit Hard

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ADP Change in employment month-over-month by employer size

Please consider the ADP^® National Employment Report for January 2026.

Private employers added 22,000 jobs in January.

Job creation took a step back in 2025, with private employers adding 398,000 jobs, down from 771,000 in 2024. While we’ve seen a continuous and dramatic slowdown in job creation for the past three years, wage growth has remained stable.

Month-Over-Month Change by Employer Size

1-19: +30,000
20-49: -30,000
50-249: +37,000
250-499: +4,000
500+: -18,000

Year-Over-Year Change by Employer Size

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Year-Over-Year Change Details

1-19: +513,000
20-49: -160,000
50-249: -252,000
250-499: +40,000
500+: +241,000

Key Weakness Points

Businesses with 20-49 employees have negative year-over-year growth for 20 straight months and 24 out of the last 25 months.
Businesses with 50-249 employees have negative year-over-year growth for 13 straight months.
Businesses with 250-499 employees have gone nowhere (-26,000 to +60,000 year-over-year) for 28 straight months. The average is +13,000 year-over-year, about 1,000 a month.

This is certainly not a strong labor market.

The weakness is where one would expect, small- to mid-sized businesses clobbered by tariffs.

AI is going to start taking a bite out of large employers.