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CPI January and December 2025

• CPI Jan 3.0, Dec 2.7
• CPI Excluding Food and Energy: Jan 3.3, Dec 2.6
• Medical Care Services: Jan 2.7, Dec 3.5
• Food and Beverages: Jan 2.4, Dec 3.0
• Food Away from Home: Jan 3.4, Dec 4.1
• Utilities and Fuels: Jan 2.9, Dec 6.7
• Rent of Primary Residence: Jan 4.2, Dec 2.9
• OER: Jan 4.6, Dec 3.4
• Shelter: Jan 4.4, Dec 3.2
• Energy: Jan 1.0, Dec 2.3

The Fed’s target is 2.0 percent. Only energy is close. But it’s up 1.3 percentage points since January 2025.

Things Getting Worse

• Medical Care Services
• Food
• Utilities
• Energy

Things Getting Better Slowly

• CPI
• Core CPI
• Shelter (Rent and OER)

Energy may be a surprise to some because Gasoline is down 3.4 percent from a year ago.

I don’t show Gasoline because it’s so volatile that it blows the scales on the graph in both directions.

But in the broader category of “energy”, electricity and natural gas more than offset the decline in energy.

Inflation Defeated

On January 21, 2026, CMBC reported Trump Says Inflation Was ‘Defeated.’

In the war on affordability, President Donald Trump has claimed victory over inflation.

Trump said during a speech Wednesday in Davos, Switzerland, that he had “defeated” inflation and reined in consumer prices over the past year.

In an address to world leaders and others at the World Economic Forum, Trump said that the U.S. has “virtually no inflation.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, also told CNBC that inflation remains “uncomfortably high.”

“Inflation is especially problematic for lower and middle-income Americans, given the high inflation for many staples such as groceries, electricity, apparel, furniture, childcare, and healthcare,” Zandi wrote in an e-mail.

Classic Trumpian Lies

Trump’s inflation claims are nothing but classic Trumpian lies. No one believes his nonsense, and it shows up in the polls.

Exaggerated claims on inflation destroyed Biden, and Trump is doing the same thing.

Trump just cannot help himself on anything, ever. Instead of under-promising and over-delivering, Trump over-promises and under-delivers everywhere.

Inflation remains out of control, and labor market weakness is obvious. It’s a bad economic mix for the Fed.

Related Posts

January 27, 2026: Trump Cheers a Plunge of the US Dollar “I Think It’s Great”

“Look at all the business we are doing,” says Trump.

A sinking dollar adds to inflation.

January 31, 2026: Competing Claims, How Much Labor Market Weakness Is There?

Some see “No Signs of Labor Market Weakness”. Others strongly disagree.

February 2, 2026: Odds of a National “Blue Wave” in Midterm Elections are now 69 percent

Three weeks ago blue wave odds were only 41%.

See the post for the polymarket definition of “Blue Wave”, now at 73 percent.

February 2, 2026: The Fed Has Two Huge Problems Starting Now, Acyclical Inflation and Jobs

The Fed is not in a good spot.

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