A Surge In Oil Prices Above $105 Per Barrel Underscores The Sharp Worsening Of The Geopolitical Crisis

The US stock market ended Tuesday’s session with moderate losses, remaining under strong pressure from rising borrowing costs. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.63%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.45%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed Tuesday down 0.65%. The key negative factor is the dynamics of the debt market: the yield on benchmark 10‑year US Treasury bonds rose to 5.04%, updating its highest levels in nearly two decades. A new wave of military escalation in the Middle East has intensified risks of disruptions in energy supplies, pushing oil prices toward $109 per barrel and forcing investors to price in an almost guaranteed 25‑basis‑point rate hike by the Federal Reserve at today’s meeting.

Bitcoin’s (BTC/USD) drop to $75,000 and the renewal of a three‑week low highlight the vulnerability of digital assets amid regulatory deadlock in the United States. The failure of the procedural vote on the Clarity Act in the Senate (49 against 50 with 60 votes required) destroyed market hopes for a swift transfer of supervisory authority to the more lenient Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Prolonged institutional uncertainty threatens to slow the inflow of corporate capital, pause the expansion of institutional products, and provoke the relocation of part of the digital assets’ infrastructure outside US jurisdiction.

In Europe, by the end of Tuesday’s session, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.15%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.34%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.05%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session lower by 0.37%. In July 2026, the Eurozone trade balance showed significant strengthening: the surplus in external trade in goods reached €14.2 billion, the highest level in nine months. The positive balance increased noticeably compared to €10.7 billion in July last year. The main driver of the trend was the highest export volume in 16 months, which grew by 9% year‑on‑year to €276 billion. Imports of goods over the same period rose by 7.9% to €261.8 billion, reflecting the underlying resilience of domestic demand in the region amid recovering external trade flows.

A surge in global oil prices above $105 per barrel underscores the sharp worsening of the geopolitical and logistical crisis in global energy markets. Saudi Arabia’s forced cancellation of part of its September contracts for European clients and the suspension of shipments at the Yanbu port indicate serious damage to key infrastructure. Drone strikes on pumping stations of the East-West pipeline have effectively blocked the only major route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, with a capacity of up to 7 million barrels per day. The situation is further aggravated by intense escalation from the Houthis, who have expanded cross‑border attacks on Saudi facilities, as well as the near‑complete blockade of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz itself, where the collapse of daily commercial tanker traffic to only a handful of voyages reflects the failure of diplomatic attempts to create protected corridors.

In Asia on Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.01%, China’s FTSE China 50 closed lower by 1.06%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.00%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed Tuesday down 0.88%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) stabilized near $0.71, holding around a four‑week low under strong pressure from the US dollar rally and the sharp spike in US Treasury yields. The yield on 10‑year US Treasuries surpassed the 5% mark, updating highs last seen in 2007. Some restraining influence on the fall of the “aussie” comes from the hawkish monetary rhetoric of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Market participants are pricing in an 85% probability of an RBA rate hike to 4.60% at the September 29 meeting to combat imported inflation.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) extended its decline to $0.574, updating a two‑month low under pressure from global macroeconomic factors and key domestic developments. The main driver of the currency’s weakness remains the US dollar rally on the day of the Federal Reserve meeting, where the American regulator is expected not only to potentially raise rates. Additional uncertainty for the kiwi comes from expectations surrounding New Zealand’s Q2 GDP data, which economists expect to show only moderate dynamics. Despite this, markets are pricing in a 60% probability of another rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in October.

• S&P 500 (US500) 7,585.73 -34.25 (-0.45%)

• Dow Jones (US30) 52,093.11 -328.09 (-0.63%)

• DAX (DE40) 25,402.28 -38.53 (-0.15%)

• FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,658.13 -39.44 (-0.37%)

• USD Index 99.65 +0.26 (+0.26%)

News feed for: 2026.09.16

• Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)

• UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (HIGH)

• UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)

• Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)

• US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)

• US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – WTI (HIGH)

• US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3) – USD, XAU, US indices (HIGH)

• US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3) – USD, XAU, US indices (HIGH)

• US FOMC Economic Projections at 21:00 (GMT+3) – USD, XAU, US indices (HIGH)

• US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3) – USD, XAU, US indices (HIGH)