A Market That Is Looking Toppy And Weak

The Short-Term Trend

Weak into the close is more confirmation of the new short-term downtrend. Also, I think a market in which the NYSE is pointing lower, and the NASDAQ pointing higher, is a market that is looking toppy and weak.

The NASDAQ hitting new highs, and the NYSE falling below the 200-day is not a good combination. Bearish.

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The World Index resembles the NYSE. Bearish.

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The Package Index is not happy. Bearish.

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Here is a long-term view of the Package Index. It does a good job of providing advance warning when there is a problem in the general market.

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Commodities, Currencies

What is this spreadsheet telling us? 

The US Dollar is much stronger than the other currencies which points us towards owning ETFs with US Stocks, and points us away from ETFs with foreign stocks. 

It also points us away from owning stocks that are linked to the price of commodities... unless the commodity is Energy related.

You don't usually see a strong dollar and strong oil prices at the same time, and I think at some point they will come back in sync which means that one of the two will start to weaken.

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Neither of these chart patterns are inspiring me to own Energy-related stocks yet, but I will continue to watch.

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Outlook Summary:

The long-term outlook is cautious.  Higher rates and huge Federal deficits.
The medium-term trend is up as of May-10. 
The short-term trend is down as of Jun-19.

The medium-term trend for bond prices is up as of Jun-19.