A Dropoff In Manufacturing Employment?

From the ADP release:

Figure 1: Change in manufacturing employment since 2025M01 from BLS (blue), preliminary benchmark revision from BLS (light blue square), from ADP (green). Orange shading denotes post-Liberation Day period. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, BLS, and author’s calculations.

Private NFP doesn’t show a dropoff, but growth didn’t match expectations (+38K vs. +47K Bloomberg consensus):

Figure 2: Change in private nonfarm payroll employment since 2025M01 from BLS (blue), Bloomberg consensus (blue +), preliminary benchmark revision from BLS (light blue square), from ADP (green). Orange shading denotes post-Liberation Day period. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, BLS, Bloomberg 8/28, and author’s calculations.