2025 Trade Deficit At 2024 Levels

The 2025 trade deficit holds steady at $75.1 million, closely mirroring 2024 levels despite an expansion in the real goods trade gap. Macroeconomic factors like private saving and government budget balances continue to drive these persistent imbal...

Total seasonally adjusted trade deficit averaged $75.1 mn, vs. 2024 $75.3 mn. The real goods trade deficit averaged $99.8 mn Ch.2017$ vs. 94.4 mn Ch.2017$. In other words, the real goods trade deficit increased (the same is true of the real goods ex-petroleum trade deficit).

Figure 1: Trade balance, BoP basis, mn$ (black). Source: BEA. 

Figure 2: Real goods exports, ex-petroleum per month (blue), real goods imports, ex-petroleum per month (red), both in mnCh.2017$, s.a. Source: BEA.


If you thought macroeconomic aggregates (private saving vs. private investment, government budget balance, net income flows) determined primarily the trade balance, this outcome would not be very surprising.

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