America’s largest exporter of manufactured products will increasingly be dependent on Asia, according to Boeing’s Current Market Outlook: 2017-2036.

The general pattern is well described here:

Low air fares, higher living standards with a growing middle class in large emerging markets, and the growth of tourism and travel relative to total consumer spending in major economies are all driving strength in the demand for air travel.

When I was 10 years old, only one of my friends had ever flown in an airplane. His family had just moved to California from New York, and he made the trip on a plane. We all thought that was keen. Now, most middle class kids in the United States have either flown or have friends who have traveled by airplane. As I look about the cabin on a plane, I am pretty sure I’m not flying with only the “one percent.” The commonness of air travel today belies the claim that the middle class has not improved its standard of living in the past few decades.

Boeing Current Market Outlook

Forecast of demand for aircraft by region

Boeing predicts that of the total commercial aircraft deliveries in the next 20 years, 57 percent will be due to growth in the market and 43 percent replacement of existing airplanes. Single aisle airplanes will be the dominant type.

It’s the growth of the Asian market that is stunning to me. But first, the emerging markets will grow as a share of world GDP. Boeing estimates that the gain is from 18.4 percent in 2000 to 38.4 percent in 2020. The largest driver of air traffic, in their forecast, is travel within Asia, with annual growth of 5.7 percent. Travel within China is the largest part of that.

Boeing has 145,000 employees, the overwhelming majority of them in the United States. Last year two-thirds of their commercial airplanes were sold to foreign companies.

I have long said that the United States is better off when our neighbors are better off. Boeing’s coming benefit from the growth of Asia is a vivid demonstration of that point.