Market Dynamics Are In Flux
Market dynamics are in flux with exhaustion of the 'automatic rally' (a term we used years ago to describe washouts and snap-backs) post the 'historic earthquake' of an Election. Aftershocks are continuing and are only 'slightly' ameliorated by a softer 'tone' on some issues from the President-Elect's reflections on healthcare and other issues (actually not so far afield from what he said in the campaign, just not emphasized by the press at the time.. which is not to say there's not genuine concern).
In the market, the Brexit-like rebound primarily was focused on 'old line' and other stocks that will benefit from major structural upgrades in the Country; with most market strength primarily based on re-positioning, of course, away from bond markets. But what about the market's reaction to acrimony, a debt ceiling approaching, international agreements, plus an unrealistic agenda that would be a 'fiscal folly' unless compromised.
If this divide is able to be bridged, Trump will have shown both the very determined shrewd chutzpah needed to knock-off opposition; contribute to a sweep of the Congress, but also navigate into is 'real' governing or Presidential ambitions to grow this Country while stabilizing it, without it being too evident to certain factions on the 'right', that he 'fired' them too and not just the other side. A great challenge; because 'swamp draining' means essentially (like The Apprentice) 'firing' and changing 'both' sides if he really intends unwinding what evolved into 'Imperial' power elites.
And that leads to the markets, where a counter-move is likely coming as we might see in the week ahead, as efforts to extend the hot moves of the preceding few days.
Much of this should continue to be reflected as credit markets reopen in the new week. If that sputters within a couple days (as I suspect); then markets go more visibly on the defensive (negative breadth already), as the prospect of more unified declines across more sectors; versus the extremely bifurcated recent action, becomes a visible prospect.
Again; I have argued that history will show July as the start of recession or at least stagnation; and we remain in an environment that foresees a period of 'stagflation' before we arrive at more confidence in prosperity. Of course this gets discounted in advance, which is what the past week showed. But now the counterfactual kind of response challenges not a contraction amidst reorganizing, as broader concerns are confronted.
There are caveats besides protectionist concerns: such as 'if' the banks come under reform calls (a version of Glass-Steagall for-instance) then the market will suddenly back-off the Financials, which took-up the slack in the move of the moment. Today Senator Elizabeth Warren firmly said she would back Trump if he moves to reinstate a variation of that. Sure, the President-Elect will draw upon Wall Street brainpower like Goldman just as Hillary would have. That he is doing so is encouraging for those very afraid of something detached too far. We weren't and I have tried to convey a view of him surrounding himself with smart business-oriented guys and gals, throughout a political minefield, as being ideal.
So in the fullness of time, today's whiners about the outcome will forget it all as they become prosperous and buy new cars with their better jobs and wages a few years out. That 'potential' upside should at least stick in the back of investors minds, even during the next downside phase.
Financial transmission is creating velocity all over the place now. It's a totally bifurcated market; with the much-touted pundit FANG stocks of course really getting clocked (they were hiding places to hold averages up in the long-running distribution); while long-downtrodden Industrials have sprung to life. Most of this is happening beyond the optimism you all know we'd suspected in-event of a Trump victory; and it's primarily because money is and will be flowing in like mad. Couldn't know how it would unfold; but sniffed-that the media (part of the establishment) was not correct in presumptions. You could tell it in their election night tone.
Daily action projects S&P moving into the sobering stage, along with realizing both that 'sector reallocation' will be very important in the year ahead, while on the margins keep an eye on societal discord disrupting the orderly or normal procedural process to a new Administration.
Ideally, the next decline will arrive, but not be as severe as might otherwise have been the case. It's premature to outline S&P price levels; although we do welcome a return to genuine 'price discovery'.
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Disclosure: None.
Thanks for sharing