Tony Hayes CFA Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Analyst at Ashton Consultancy Inc.
Phone: 905-468-0130

Tony is an all-round investment professional with a broad range of credentials, skills, contacts and work experience in Canada, England, the United States and Australia. His career spanning four decades has been in the investment and mining industries as a corporate director, president, ... more

All Contributions

Latest Posts
1 to 16 of 40 Posts
1 2 3
EC Still Climbing The Wall Of Worry
Worry, to the point of irrational pessimism, has been the hallmark of investors' attitudes during the entire post-Lehman decade. It is a bull market, so be really bullish.
Fed Tolls The Bell For Gold US$2,000.
The announcement that the Fed intends to buy $60 billion of bills per month until mid-2020, certainly is QE on a massive scale. As such, the total monetary base should rise by almost half a trillion dollars to $3.76 trillion by June 30, 2020.
U.S. Dollar Stronger For Longer
The price of gold should be around $1,900 per ounce but U.S. dollar strength remains as U.S. QT continues apace. Aside from reactions to geopolitical shocks, the dollar's strength could keep the gold subdued until excess bank reserves are eliminated.
DIA - A Screaming Buy
The DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA ETF, should be bought now. It is not about to collapse as many bears are expecting.
US Dollar To Rain On Gold’s Parade
The USA is engaged in QT while most other countries are still easing. This points to a stronger U.S. dollar. Unfortunately, the strong U.S. dollar should keep the U.S. price of gold subdued for some time. Gold shares are only for patient Investors.
Dow Dividend Rising Significantly
Earnings and dividends have risen over the past year to records. However, dividend increases are lagging earnings. The dividend payout ratio is only 37%, historically low, At a 50% pay-out, the DDV value would be 60,000.
E Enough Pessimism Already, DJIA 30,000 Probable By Year End
In October, the DJIA price fell 9% despite improving fundamentals. Earnings have risen substantially and should continue to do so. Dividends should follow earnings as the year unfolds. So buy and enjoy the ride through 30,000.
'DJIA Earnings To Rise 41% By Mid-2019': Birinyi
According to Birinyi Associates Inc., the 12-month forward DJIA P/E multiple based on the price DJIA on July 27 is estimated at 16.59. To achieve this, the DJIA earnings will need to rise 41% over the next 12 months to $1,534.12, by far a record.
E DJIA Poised For Run To 30,000 In Second Half 2018
The dividend discount value of the DJIA at 42,132 continues to put upward pressure on the price of the DJIA at 24,920 and which continues to warrant a “BUY” recommendation.
E Vixen In The Hen House
U.S. tax changes are hitting headline Q4 2017 EPS and 52-week trailing DJIA earnings. Quarterly EPS declines should recover as Q1 2018 results are reported in early April showing the true impact of new tax changes.
Predicted Acceleration In DJIA Rise To Continue
No Meaningful DJIA Pull-Back expected this year or next. Trump’s forecast of 30,000 for the DJIA this year. – No big deal. DJIA price is accelerating towards its value of 42,186.
E At 24,329 Price Of DJIA At 44 % Discount To Value Of 43,533
Re-balancing is slowing the price rise of DJIA while simultaneously boosting the bond market and the DJIA value. This and Santa should pull up the DJIA price. Selling equities and buying bonds is still abject madness. .
E The Tipping Point
Since Feb 11, 2016 the price of DJIA has risen 50%. Its value remains unchanged at 40,327. The dividend rise of 16% has been offset by a 17% rise in the 30 year T bond yield. The closure of the Price-Value gap is accelerating to equilibrium.
U.S. Long Rates Low For Longer – DJIA Price To Continue “Cooking With Gas”
U.S. inflation moribund as increases in monetary base have failed to reach real economy resulting in a collapse of Money Velocity. DJIA continues “cooking with gas”
E DJIA About To Start “Cooking With Gas”
The average P/E ratio over the past 36 years has been 20.2 on historical earnings. Slightly more than the current ratio of 19.7. On its own, this suggests that the DJIA is fairly priced.
Don’t Expect Fed To Cause Apocalypse
The "Trend is your Friend", so too is the Fed. The 30 Year T bond yield rose and the U.S.dollar soared above par slowing the economy. Since year end the Fed has eased and gradualism is the watchword.
1 to 16 of 40 Posts
1 2 3