David K. Bellman Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Principal Owner & Founder of All Energy Consulting

David is a seasoned energy professional and market analyst with a B.S. degree in Chemical Engineering from the University of Texas. David began his career with Purvin & Gertz, Inc. David participated in numerous petroleum and refining industry studies for international oil and gas companies, ... more

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Clean Power Plan Will Double Coal Retirements Unequally
In our base simulation, we have nearly 60 GW of coal plants retired from 2010 to 2016. Gas units are under economic pressure if the plant is located in a state with high carbon prices relative to the surrounding states.
Coal To Gas Switching – 2012 Déjà Vu?
The current futures market is showing a very tight spread between gas and coal. This may reduce price volatility, but it will make up for it in coal and gas volume volatility.
Renewables No Impact With Low Oil Price – False
The belief that low oil prices will have no impact on renewable is very misguided and optimistically biased. The practical reality is the path of renewables will be altered with continued low oil prices.
Oil Market Outlook Change – Too Low Demand Expectations
BP released their 2015 Energy Outlook. As noted by their Chief Economist this is not to address prices or near term events. However, price, in the end, is the meat of a discussion for an energy outlook as price and outlook for supply and demand are intertwined.
Case Study On Using Analytics To Save Money For Ratepayers
PMA cannot forecast the future in terms of weather, commodity prices, outages, etc but it can let you know how much each of those variables can impact the market.
Modeling The USGC Refining Market
The EIA Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) was forecasting distillate spread to gasoline to be negative until the 2010 AEO release. The current AEO 2014 shows the spread averaging over $0.3/gallon.
Quantifying Power Price Risk
Examining the Mid-C On-Peak power curve, we see some very interesting results. The current forward curve for the summer rises from $22/MWh to $30/MWh by the end of summer.
Oil Price Drop Impacts Beyond The Obvious – Part 1
The oil market drop will impact the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), and suspiciously the EPA delayed the release of the Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO) for 2014 twice.
EC How Low Will Oil Go?
My hesitancy in answering has been due to my jagged edge of experience in trading commodities. The price of a commodity, in a fixed given time period, does not have to hold any fundamental characteristic.
The Clean Power Plan Is Unconstitutional – Straight Up!
Texas will likely see a carbon price/cost somewhere between $20-$30/ton depending on the effectiveness in the building blocks described in the plan.
Oil Market Doomsayer & OPEC Bashers –Not Putting The Money Up
Over the past week, there were so many pundits noting the poor decision by OPEC, and that the market will continue to spiral down. As I worked on refreshing my oil price forecast given this market change, the remarkable difference is that there is not much difference in the forward curve.
OPEC Decision Expected And Justified
OPEC meeting went as expected. There was no formal agreement to cut production in the first meeting since the price correction.
Splitting The Profit – Condensate Splitters Under Pressure
Ethane, because of its unique property relative to propane, butane, and pentanes plus, requires much more effort to liquefy. Therefore, often ethane is left in the gas stream (rejected) versus extracting and supplying it to the petchem industry.
Crude Oil Markets Are Not Like 1998
In order to find the future price of oil, we need to understand how the market got to where it is now.
Finding Winning Power Trades – The Process
The arbitrage being found is the disconnects between gas futures and power futures.
Crude Oil Collapse?
Fundamentals of supply and demand of crude oil should and will dominate the crude oil price.
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