After completing a degree in Geophysics, Bob worked in mining exploration. Inspired by the mistake of making money on his first trade, he joined an investment dealer. Historical research led to metals forecasting for large mining companies. This segued into providing independent research to ... more

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E Bull Market Peak?
There is a history of commodities blowing out and 9 years later, a stock boom concludes. Since the advent of modern finance with publically-traded stocks and central banking the pattern has occurred five times.
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Market Valuation, Inflation And Treasury Yields - Clues From The Past
2 years ago

Hi Jill

You could stretch out your history to include all of the great financial bubbles. After the banking reform of the 1840s, the senior central bank (then, BoE) was allowed to liberally change administered rates. At times of great excitement beginning with the 1873 Bubble the senior central bank (now the Fed) has followed changes in short-dated market rates of interest. T-bills or equivalent. By many months.

For example, the 3-month bill increased to 5% in May 1929 and turned down in that fateful June. The first Fed cut on a normal post-bubble contraction was in October.

The 3-month reached 1.18% a few weeks ago and has declined to 1.06%, but has yet to break down.

There is an old saying in physics that if you keep your database short enough, it will fit your theory.

Both interventionist and "conservative" economists work with a short database.

Best,

Bob

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Exceptional Speculations: Part 2 - BOB HOYE - PUBLISHED BY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS - JANUARY 11, 2018
We have been around too long to be wholly confident. However, the main trend is up & as with previous great bull markets, completion will be anticipated by change in credit markets which continue supportive of the boom. The recent turn to brighter action in industrial commodities also positive.
BOB HOYE - Exceptional Speculations
The Bitcoin/Blockchain phenomenon could become the mechanism that can meet the eventual public demand for sound money. One that cannot be corrupted by even the most charismatic of economists. Or the most compelling of federal budget failures.
Hegelian Dialectic
BOB HOYE - PUBLISHED BY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS NOVEMBER 5, 2017 Hegelian Dialectic 2017
Climate Update BOB HOYE PUBLISHED BY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS
Solar minimums have been associated with climate cooling.
GOLD And Precious Metals - BOB HOYE - PUBLISHED BY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS
Our September 14th Pivot noted that the decline in the DX seemed to be basing. In which case, as the dollar recovered, the sector would sell off. Our conclusion was that the Precious Metals sector could be much cheaper by late in the year.
Signs Of The Times - Bob Hoye
We are still disturbed by last week’s observation from a very big money manager that the main risk is “policy error” by the Fed. This could be based upon 2007, when there was adamant conviction that the Fed, in making the perfectly-timed “cut” in the administered rate, could keep the mania going.
NYSE: Important Signal
We have been monitoring for what could be the last key technical signal on the NYSE, which has been a Sequential (9) Sell. This was accomplished on Thursday-Friday on the S&P and DJIA. BOB HOYE PUBLISHED BY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS SEPTEMBER 25, 2017
Global Warning!
As outlined by US markets, the financial mania has likely completed. September could reverse the action from bull to bear. As we have been reviewing it, the fall liquidity crisis could become serious enough to prompt a serious re-assessment of the competence of intrusive central banking.

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