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Chief Investment Strategist
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Ben Hunt is the chief investment strategist at Salient and the author of Epsilon Theory, a newsletter and website that examines markets through the lenses of game theory and history. Over 100,000 professional investors and allocators across 180 countries read Epsilon Theory for its fresh ... more

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The Grifters, Chapter 2 – N95 Masks
Our political and market worlds have become an unending sea of grift … small cons, big cons, short cons, long cons … and every day the distinction between grifters and squares becomes more and more blurred.
Deep Sociopathy
It's the seemingly universal view among the most powerful corporate organizations that laws are nothing more than speed limits – merely part of an annoying cost-benefit analysis that must be performed as they drive merrily down the road at top speed.
The Things We're Sensitive About
The extremes of a global pandemic have revealed a lot about what our political and corporate leaders and institutions are sensitive about.
The Grifters, Part I: Kodak
Let's just give $765M to an almost-defunct company with no experience.
The investors facing a hangover are small family offices, plied with endless offerings of fee-heavy SPVs and SPACs by multi-billion dollar asset managers. They’re the ones overserved by Wall Street today.
The Language Divide
If you spend a significant amount of time on social media, regardless of your political affiliation or lack thereof, you are addicted to culture-porn. And reason loses the battle against addiction every time.
Misfortune Vs. Carelessness
Back in 2013, I wrote about how unemployment data was chronically misreported during Barack Obama’s first term, with an outrageous bias towards making the employment news flow in the United States look much better in narrative than it was in fact.
The Hertz Story Isn’t What You Think
The Hertz bankruptcy is not a story of entrenched, self-dealing management. Nope, if anything management is getting bad here, and the $16 million in retention bonuses – spread over 340 employees – is on the way, way low end for what I’d expect.
A Truth That’s Told With Bad Intent
Our narratives of COVID-19 are all lies. They are lies of a particular sort, political narratives that have a nugget of truth within them, but are told with bad intent. They are told this way because it works.
EC Bear Stearns And The Narratives Of Systemic Risk
In May 2007, Bear Stearns – one of the crown jewels of Wall Street – traded at nearly $160 per share. The S&P 500 peaked in October 2007. Five months later, in March 2008, Bear Stearns was taken out in the street and shot in the head by regulators.
Through No Fault Of Their Own
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the Big 4 airlines will be accessing tens of billions of dollars in cash grants and easy 10-year loans, all explicitly designed to support entrenched management and equity shareholders.
Do The Right Thing On The Airline Bailouts
I’m angry that,when we have people dying left and right in this country, I have to write a note about the airline industry and how to structure the bail-out of United, Delta, American and Southwest. And Boeing.
Central Banks: A Cycle Of Addiction
Two of the world’s major central banks – namely the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the European Central Bank (ECB) – have created what is akin to a cycle of addiction to negative interest rates.
The Return Of The Rotation Missionaries
We think a rotation trade is being promoted by market missionaries, which is not exactly the same thing as the rotation actually happening, and neither of which is necessarily the same thing as trading on that observation being a good idea.
Yeah, It’s Still Water
Financialization is profit margin growth without labor productivity growth.
The Emerging Market Zeitgeist Is Broken
It’s not just the Argentina narrative that’s broken. It’s not just the IMF narrative that’s broken. It’s the entire EM Zeitgeist that’s broken.
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