Image Source: Pixabay
 

ADP reports the total YOY small business growth as +19,000.
 

ADP Change in Employment by Employer Size Year-Over-Year
 

The ADP^® National Employment Report for August shows a gain of only 54,000 private jobs.

The year started with strong job growth, but that momentum has been whipsawed by uncertainty. A variety of things could explain the hiring slowdown, including labor shortages, skittish consumers, and AI disruptions.

ADP Change in Employment by Employer Size Month-Over-Month
 

ADP Change in Employment by Employer Size Month-Over-Month
 

The total private gain in August is 54,000.

The total private gain for employer size 20-49 for all of 2025 is -12,000.

ADP Change in Small, Medium, Large Employment Year-Over-Year
 

ADP Change in Employment Year-Over-Year Small, Medium, Large
 

Change in Small, Medium, Large Employment Details

• Small: 19,000
• Medium, 264,000
• Large: 781,000

That is a total of 1.064 million, about 89,000 per month and declining fast.

The year-over-year change in businesses from 20-49 employees went negative in June of 2024. It’s been negative most of the months since.

QCEW Report Shows Overstatement of Jobs by the BLS is Increasing

On June 16, I noted QCEW Report Shows Overstatement of Jobs by the BLS is Increasing

The discrepancy between QCEW and the BLS jobs report is rising.

The QCEW consists of 12.2 million establishments in the first quarter of 2024. The BLS nonfarm payroll report has a sample size of 629,000 individual worksites in 2024.

The Unemployment Level Is Now Greater than Job Openings

Yesterday, I noted The Unemployment Level Is Now Greater than Job Openings

For the first time since the pandemic unemployment is above openings.

The nonfarm payroll response rate is 42.6 percent with the same issues as with JOLTS

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