What To Watch In Macy's Earnings Report
Macy's (M) is scheduled to report results of its third fiscal quarter before the market open on Thursday, November 19, with a conference call scheduled for 8:00 am EDT.
1. GUIDANCE: On July 1, Macy's declined to provide an updated outlook for 2020 due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, but forecast a low- to mid-teens increase in digital sales for the fiscal year. It added that it expected its performance to improve sequentially, with expense savings of approximately $365M in fiscal 2020 and approximately $630M on an annualized basis. In September, Macy's forecast SSS, owned+ licensed, down low-to-mid '20s for fall season.
Macy's continues to see improvement in store sales with solid trends in its digital business while exercising strong expense discipline and inventory management, Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Trussell told investors after the Q2 report.
2. NO SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT AHEAD: Credit Suisse analyst Michael Binetti kept an Underperform rating and $6 price target on Macy's following the company's Q2 earnings report. While the analyst said the Q2 results were "solid against cautious expectations," he is concerned about Macy's "depressed" credit card revenue guidance for the second half and about how little detail is available about the cost savings plan.
Goldman Sachs analyst Alexandra Walvis said that while the company reported better than expected Q2 results with sequential improvement in gross margins and solid expense management, its outlook for the second half of the year remains challenging. Walvis added that her cautious outlook on the stock remains intact as sales trends in stores remain under "significant pressure" while its shift to digital sales stands to weigh on gross margins and "drive deleverage" at stores.
3. PEERS: Many of Macy's peers in the department store space are struggling, with Lord & Taylor recently filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Retailers that have already filed for Chapter 11 amid the pandemic include J Crew, J.C. Penney (JCPNQ) and Neiman Marcus in May, and Lucky Brand in July.
4. EXECUTIVE CHANGES: In October, Macy's named Adrian Mitchell as CFO, joining the retailer from Boston Consulting Group where he was a Managing Director and Partner in the Digital BCG and Consumer Practices.
Morgan Stanley analyst Kimberly Greenberger said she has a "positive view" of the selection and thinks Mitchell likely brings a range of skills to the role. Though she views the addition of Mitchell to the team as a positive, and looks forward to hearing more from him over the coming months, Greenberger maintained an Underweight rating with a $5 price target on Macy's shares.
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