Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 2K - Thur., April 21

Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:

In the week ending April 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted week moving ave initial claims was 184,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 185,000 to 186,000. The 4 rage was 177,250, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 172,250 to 172,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.0 percent for the week ending April 9, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted unemployment insured during the week ending April 9 was 1,417,000, a decrease of 58,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 1 The 4,475,000. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since February 21, 1970 when it was 1,412,000. week moving average was 1,481,750, a decrease of 31,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average sin ce March 21, 1970 when it was 1,456,750. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,500 from 1,511,500 to 1,513,000. [See full report]

This morning's seasonally adjusted 184K new claims, down 2K from the previous week's revised figure, was above the Investing.com forecast of 180K.

Here is a close look at the data over the decade (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend.

Unemployment Claims since 2007

As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.

Unemployment Claims

Here's a copy of the above chart, but zoomed in, so the COVID spike isn't as prominent. We'll be adding a few more of these "zoomed in" looks in the coming weeks.

The headline Unemployment Insurance data is seasonally adjusted. What does the non-seasonally adjusted data look like? See the chart below, which clearly shows the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data (the red dots). The 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change (note, for example, those regular January spikes).

Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, we can add a 52-week moving average to give a better sense of the secular trends. The chart below also has a linear regression through the data.

Nonseasonally Adjusted 52-week MA

Here's a look at a sample of year's claims going back to 2009.

For an analysis of unemployment claims as a percent of the labor force, see this regularly updated piece The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims and the Business Cycle. Here is a snapshot from that analysis.

Initial Claims to the CLF

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.