Yellen Plays Both Sides Again; Market Doesn't Trust Her

The market had spent weeks ahead of the Jackson Hole, Wyoming speech by Yellen before making any type of move that included some volatility and a try higher with some force. The thinking was different depending on who you asked. Some thought she'd simply say nothing other than the usual, which was she'll raise when it's appropriate meaning she's looking at the data that comes in from report to report. Others thought she'd definitely talk about raising rates in September. That she'd give a definitive date and then we'd see how the market responds. She played the middle ground. She's very good at being vague. She said that employment is full, and that things are better and that rate hike is coming. We already know one is coming Ms. Yellen. But when? She didn't say. Same old. She'll see. When she feels like it she will.

So she said she will raise, but didn't do it today nor told us when. The market has learned not to trust her. She has often spoke about raising rates, but as time has passed by she has yet to do anything. She tells us she has fears from Brexit or this and that. So the market doesn't trust her when she doesn't give a definitive date. She has earned the mistrust. Bottom line is she gave a bit more information about the need for rate hike but once again was unclear about timing. The market is tired of this. We all are. It tells you she still doesn't trust the global economy nor ours. We can keep the guessing game going. I think that's exactly what she wants. Satisfy many by saying it's coming but in the end, still doing nothing. Just the way she is. Not good.

So with the market swinging about all over the place today because of the lack of full understanding of the feds future actions, we deal with a market that neither wants to blast higher nor fall down below 2134 on the S&P 500. A lot of nothing with lots of noise in the background. It is tough to play a market that has no real direction short-term. We've gone nowhere for many weeks now. The market has failed at blasting out after the July 11 breakout. It has also failed at breaking down, even though it has had many opportunities. This puts all of us in a difficult spot in terms of learning how to play the short-term. You can stay long, but do so with respect to how tough the environment is. Rotation is still with us and that will have to go away before we can fall with force. To sum it up, even if we get one rate hike it's clear there won't be a series of hikes and that alone could keep us on the bullish side of things. Go slow.

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