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GDPNow data from the Atlanta Fed, chart by Mish

The GDPNow Latest Estimate is 3.1 percent as of September 27, 2024

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 3.1 percent on September 27, up from 2.9 percent on September 18. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, a decline in the nowcast of real personal consumption expenditures growth was more than offset by increases in the nowcasts of real gross private domestic investment growth and the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth.

GDP vs Real Final Sales

Real final sales is the bottom line estimate of GDP and the number to watch.

The difference between GDP and Real Final Sales is inventory adjustment which nets to zero over time.

Nowcast Comments

To date, this has been one of the most stable nowcast quarters that I can recall. The entire range for the quarter has been from 2.0 to 3.1 percent with not a lot of gyrations.

The range for real final sales is even narrower at 2.2 percent to 3.0 percent.

Today’s Income and outlays report is nearly the end of August economic data minus a couple of minor reports.

For discussion of income and outlays and the PCE price index, please see Real Personal Spending and Income Rise 0.1 Percent in August

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is the PCE price index, discussed in the above link.

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