The answer depends on your measure of success. Ultimately, Republicans will cave.

Trump Meets With Congressional Leaders on Monday

The Wall Street Journal reports Trump to Host Last-Ditch Talks to Avoid Government Shutdown:

President Trump has agreed to meet in the Oval Office with the four top congressional leaders, setting up dramatic last-minute talks just as Republicans and Democrats are bracing for a government shutdown within days.

The meeting is scheduled for Monday, according to people familiar with the matter, ahead of an expected redo of a Senate vote that will determine whether Congress will keep the government funded beyond Tuesday. House Republicans narrowly passed a bill this month that would fund the government into late November and add millions for security for lawmakers and other officials, but Democrats blocked that measure in the Senate and sought bipartisan negotiations on healthcare funding.

The meeting will include House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) along with their Democratic counterparts, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D., N.Y.).

“President Trump has once again agreed to a meeting in the Oval Office,” Schumer and Jeffries said in a statement, a reference to a canceled sit-down last week. “As we have repeatedly said, Democrats will meet anywhere, at any time and with anyone to negotiate,” they said.

A shutdown would force the furlough of hundreds of thousands of federal workers and restrict a range of government operations. Critical services would continue, and Americans would continue to get Social Security payments and mail deliveries. In a move to raise the stakes for Democrats, the White House on Wednesday evening instructed agencies to also draw up lists of federal workers to fire if there is a shutdown.

Democrats brushed off that threat, saying that Trump officials have already laid off large swaths of the federal workforce since January.

On a private call with House Democrats on Friday, Jeffries reiterated his confidence in Schumer and his colleagues to hold firm.

Senate Democrats “have a lot of leverage right now, and I’ve heard from people who will be hurt the most by a shutdown that they want Senate Democrats to use their leverage,” said Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D., Va.), whose suburban district is home to a large number of federal contractors.

Schumer Sees an Exit Ramp in Standoff Over Shutdown

Also consider Schumer Sees an Exit Ramp in Standoff Over Shutdown:

Even as Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer stands on the brink of a government shutdown, he can see a potential way out.

The New York Democrat is squaring off with President Trump and congressional Republicans six months after he drew criticism from Democratic colleagues and activists for helping the GOP keep the government open. Federal agencies will partially shut down Wednesday if Congress doesn’t pass a short-term spending patch, and the White House has made it clear it plans to make things as painful as possible—starting with mass firings of government workers on top of the typical furloughs.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Schumer projected confidence that he has an exit strategy in the event of a shutdown. He said that he expects pressure will build on Republicans to reach a deal to save expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies as Americans receive letters next month informing them of healthcare premium increases ahead of open enrollment in November.

“There’s going to be pressure on them on that…and Democrats are going to say, very simply, ‘Just come and sit down and talk to us and negotiate agreements, and you can end the shutdown,’” Schumer said.

Democrats’ list of demands also include restoring cut Medicaid funding and unfreezing money previously approved by Congress, but Schumer said those items were negotiable with Republicans.

“Those things are not red lines,” he said. “All we’ve asked is that they sit down, negotiate, and help relieve the pain the Americans are feeling because of their healthcare cuts.”

The Senate returns on Monday, but Republican leaders plan to keep the House out until after the Sept. 30 shutdown deadline, in a bid to force Democrats to accept their spending bill. 

“The radical left Democrats want to shut it down, and it’s up to them,” Trump said Friday.

Playing hardball

Thune said in an interview that internal Democratic politics are pushing Schumer to play hardball. Schumer’s political base “was incredibly unforgiving” back in March during the last standoff, Thune said. “He got blown up for doing the right thing.”

But Thune also said that a resolution likely will involve an agreement to extend the expiring health-insurance subsidies. The tax credits, which expanded the payments offered under the existing ACA, or Obamacare, were first passed in 2021 by Democrats and are set to expire at the end of this year.

Expect a Shutdown

Since the House will not be in session, there will be a shutdown.

So, if that’s your definition of success, there won’t be success. But that’s not my definition of success.

It makes more sense to view this as win-lose on the ultimate resolution, not win-lose on avoiding a shutdown.

Definition of Win

• If Republicans cave in on anything, Democrats win.
• If Republicans cave in on nothing, Republicans win.

By scheduling a meeting on Monday, Trump hopes to put the blame on Democrats.

But who will the public blame?

Schumer appears to be willing to hold out until Affordable Care Act healthcare premium increase notices are sent out in October.

That means a shutdown may last a few weeks or more.

Sticker Shock

Enhanced premium tax credits, originally from the 2021 American Rescue Plan Act and extended through 2025 by the Inflation Reduction Act, cap out-of-pocket premiums at 8.5% of income (or less for lower earners).

Without extension, these subsidies expire December 31, 2025, potentially increasing premiums by an average of 18% overall—and up to 75% for some low- to middle-income households (e.g., a family of four earning $60,000 could see monthly costs jump from $0-$200 to $800+).

Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace enrollees typically receive notices about premium increases for the upcoming plan year in September and October, during the lead-up to open enrollment.

• Federal Marketplace (HealthCare.gov): Notices are mailed or emailed starting in early fall, with most arriving by late October. Renewal packets, including premium details, must be postmarked by October 31.
• State-based Marketplaces: Timelines vary slightly (e.g., Covered California sends notices in October), but all align with the federal open enrollment period from November 1, 2025, to January 15, 2026.
• What to expect: With proposed average premium hikes of 18% for 2026 (and potential post-subsidy increases up to 75% if subsidies aren’t extended), notices will highlight “sticker shock” for many.

The more I look at this, the more I expect Republicans to cave in on something.

Thune Waves the White Flag of Surrender

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) indicated that Republican leadership is open to addressing the expiration of enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, likely through a bipartisan agreement as part of year-end appropriations rather than a short-term government funding bill

“I think the ACA subsidies will be an issue that will be addressed but I think right now we’ve got to keep the government open so we can do appropriations bills and work on that, with that solution,” said Thune.

Some GOP lawmakers, like Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), have proposed frameworks explicitly including subsidy extensions to stabilize costs.

House Republicans introduced a one-year extension bill on September 4, 2025, to push the decision past the 2026 midterms, citing political risks of “sticker shock” for voters.

The Cost

Add another $350 billion to the deficit over the next 10 years if the giveaways stop there.

But why should we expect the damage to stop there?

Perhaps $350 billion should be considered a success. After all, if that’s the result, Trump will brag about it.

Related Posts

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“I think a bill can be big or it could be beautiful. But I don’t know if it could be both.”

June 21, 2025: Record Deficits as Far as the Eye Can See and Trump Begs for More:

Let’s investigate CBO deficit projections vs what actually happened.

August 14, 2025: US Debt Now Grows by $1 Trillion Every 150 Days:

US national debt just topped $37 trillion and is growing fast.

And if you want to discuss complete stupidity, please consider Lutnick Says Tariffs Can Eliminate the IRS and Balance the Budget.

On September 2, I noted Gold Surges Above $3,600 to New Record High Despite a Rising Dollar:

A Word About Faith

Gold does not believe the Fed is under control, Congress is under control, budget deficits are under control, and Trump is under control.

And neither do I.

By the way, gold is now over $3,800.

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