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Macro Review: A Critical Juncture for the Markets

📊 Tuesday, March 4, 2025 – Investors are bracing for a pivotal day as key technical levels on major indices come into focus. The Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) is testing its election gap level of 492.09, a price that has long represented market sentiment towards Trump-era economic policies. With the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 491, traders are closely watching whether the index will hold support or break lower—a signal that could define the next market move.

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The market has been navigating uncertainty, with retaliatory tariffs from Canada and Mexico now in effect and a major economic speech from Trump scheduled for tonight. The outcome of today’s session will determine if this pullback is merely a correction in a bull market or the beginning of a more significant downturn. A close below 491 could indicate a shift in sentiment, while holding above could trigger a strong rebound.

Additionally, gold has been breaking out, fueled by expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts, while consumer retail stocks like Target (TGT) and Best Buy (BBY) are warning about rising prices and softening consumer demand. With a potential market bottom forming in the 485-492 range, today’s trading session presents opportunities for aggressive positioning.

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Top Picks of the Day 

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)

⚡️ Catalysts: The company has de-risked key elements of its satellite deployment, with faster-than-expected production timelines and no major surprises in its latest 10-K filing. The scheduled 5 p.m. press conference today could provide further clarity.

❤️ Sentiment: Despite the recent sell-off, ASTS remains a high-conviction play for the team, with long-term investors continuing to hold positions despite short-term volatility.

milestones are met.

📊 Fundamentals: The stock has been heavily shorted, but with the commercialization timeline on track, there is potential for a major re-rating in valuation once deployment milestones are met.

📈 Technicals: ASTS is currently testing its 50-DMA at $24.21, with a potential downside target of $21.36 if the market breaks lower. However, if QQQ holds the key 492 support level, ASTS could rebound aggressively.

OppFi (OPFI)

⚡️ Catalysts: Earnings are scheduled for tomorrow morning, and given the strong setup in consumer lending trends, there is a case for an earnings-driven move.

❤️ Sentiment: Traders in StoryTrading’s Discord have identified this as an under-the-radar opportunity, with some already scaling into positions ahead of the report.

📊 Fundamentals: The company has a solid balance sheet and is growing market share in a niche lending space, making it a potential outperformer if economic conditions remain stable.

📈 Technicals: The stock has been weak in recent sessions, but with a key support level forming, the risk-reward setup favors the upside into earnings.

Other Stocks on Watch

Aside from the top-ranked trades, a few additional setups are being monitored:

📉 Tesla (TSLA) – Testing the $255 level, a crucial support that represents a key bullish thesis under Trump’s economy.

📈 Uber (UBER) – Partnering with Waymo for self-driving taxis, reinforcing the long-term bullish case that autonomous vehicles will be integrated rather than disrupt the ride-hailing market.

📊 On Holdings (ONON) – Strong earnings beat, with 50-DMA at $52.67 acting as resistance. Calls expiring next week are still in play.

Final Thoughts: A Market Inflection Point

Today marks a pivotal moment for the market, with critical support levels being tested and a major Trump speech looming. If the bull thesis holds, we could see a strong reversal from 485-492 on QQQ, setting up a powerful rally for the remainder of the week. However, if 491 fails on a closing basis, it may signal a deeper correction.

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