(Click on image to enlarge)

Data for the above chart is from CME Fedwatch as of April 11, 2023, at 12:40 AM. 

I captured those charts early this morning. The odds have shifted a bit but the result is still a hike in May and a cut in July. 

Target Rate Probabilities for March 2024 

(Click on image to enlarge)

Looking ahead to March of 2024 the market expects the Fed will have cut rates all the way to roughly 4.0 percent after getting in a final hike in May. 

This is quite the hopium setup. 

Consumers Are Having a Much Harder Time Getting Credit Than a Year Ago

Earlier today I noted Consumers Are Having a Much Harder Time Getting Credit Than a Year Ago

It resulted in a nice Tweet thread discussion.

@DiMartinoBooth

Would love to hear any thoughts you have on this, too

— Adam Taggart (@menlobear) April 11, 2023

What we don't know is to what extent there is simply less demand for credit on behalf of customers rather than ability or willingness of banks to lend.

— Mike "Mish" Shedlock (@MishGEA) April 11, 2023

Regarding point 3. In 2008, banks foolishly thought home prices would not collapse nor did they envision people walking away. The key word is "belief". They believed wrong.

— Mike "Mish" Shedlock (@MishGEA) April 11, 2023

YES

— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) April 11, 2023

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