Morgan Stanley expects a sharp contraction in corporate earnings to weigh on US equities this year and they see the S&P500 lower at 3,900 by year-end.
However, Goldman Sachs are expecting mild growth from the S&P500 this year. So, with the path of inflation unknown, analysts divided on whether the Fed will hike in June, skip a meeting, or pause rates, & global growth also in the balance the path for US stocks in June is far from clear.
So, let’s see what the S&P500 is like from a seasonal perspective.
Over the last 15 years, the S&P500 has lost value 60% of the time between June 01 and June 30. The S&P500 paid has seen an average fall of -0.43% with the largest fall of -7.70% last year.
So, with a weak seasonal period ahead traders should note that a sudden bearish policy shift from the Fed on June 14 could see stocks fall lower in line with their weaker summer seasonal pattern.
Major Trade Risks:
The major near-term trade risk here is if inflation cools suddenly and the Fed announces a rate pause when they meet on June 14.
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular ...
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular financial instrument, group of securities, segment of industry, analysis interval or any particular idea, approach, strategy or attitude nor provides consulting nor brokerage nor asset management services. seasonax GmbH hereby excludes any explicit or implied trading recommendation, in particular, any promise, implication or guarantee that profits are earned and losses excluded, provided, however, that in case of doubt, these terms shall be interpreted in abroad sense. Any information provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media shall not be construed as any kind of guarantee, warranty or representation, in particular as set forth in a prospectus. Any user is solely responsible for the results or the trading strategy that is created, developed or applied. Indicators, trading strategies and functions provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media may contain logical or other errors leading to unexpected results, faulty trading signals and/or substantial losses. seasonax GmbH neither warrants nor guarantees the accuracy, completeness, quality, adequacy or content of the information provided by it or on this website or any other kind of data media. Any user is obligated to comply with any applicable capital market rules of the applicable jurisdiction. All published content and images on this website or any other kind of data media are protected by copyright. Any duplication, processing, distribution or any form of utilisation beyond the scope of copyright law shall require the prior written consent of the author or authors in question. Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.
