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A poll came out last week that should terrify you.

They surveyed the top 14 Wall Street strategists. Goldman. Morgan Stanley. Jefferies. Citi.

Every single one predicted a stock market rally for 2026.

Not one dissenting vote.

Some called for 11% gains. Others predicted 17%. Two expected 21% returns.

The average across all 14 was 18%.

We have now had three consecutive double-digit up years. Not one strategist thinks we might see a down year in 2026.

I have been doing this for 38 years. I have never seen unanimous agreement at the top of a market that ended well.

History shows when everybody sits on the same side of a trade, they are wrong. The market is priced to perfection and massively overbought.

I am taking the other side. My shorts are doing well.

What Unanimous Really Means

When 14 out of 14 strategists agree, you are not getting analysis. You are getting groupthink.

These people must tell clients the market is going up. Their business model depends on optimism.

Not one acknowledged that four straight up years is historically rare. That alone should get your attention.

The Structural Problem

Last year a trillion dollars flowed out of active managers into passive funds.

That concentration creates a problem nobody wants to discuss:

• Active managers buy dips and provide liquidity when selling hits
• Passive funds amplify selling because they do not make discretionary decisions
• Money flowed in slowly over years but will come out quickly in days

When we take out 6,500 on the S&P, 5,000 will happen fast. There is nobody on the other side to catch the falling knife.

The Rate Cut Reality

One Fed strategist came out last week saying there is no flexibility to cut rates at all.

Stubborn inflation and a precarious job market have the Fed stuck. Tariff uncertainty makes it worse.

I am calling for one rate cut at most this year.

If we get none, this market is in serious trouble.

The only thing that can save these valuations is AI delivering real efficiency gains. That is a thin lifeline for a market this stretched.

What I Am Doing Now

I am positioned for what history says happens next.

My shorts are working. I am building positions in hard assets and watching the slopes.

Last year's winners will become this year's losers. Mean reversion always wins eventually.

The Genesis COG System tracks these structural breakdowns before they cascade. It identifies when consensus becomes dangerous.

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