Here’s a chart making the rounds. What does it say?

Cass Freight Shipments Index NSA – Not Seasonally Adjusted

Cass Freight Indexes

Please consider The Cass Freight Index®

Since 1995, the Cass Freight Index® has been a trusted measure of the North American freight market. Our monthly data and the Cass Transportation Index Report provide valuable insight into freight trends as they relate to other economic and supply chain indicators and the overall economy.

Data within the Index includes all domestic freight modes and is derived from 36 million invoices and $36 billion in spend processed by Cass annually on behalf of its client base of hundreds of large shippers. These companies represent a broad sampling of industries including consumer packaged goods, food, automotive, chemical, medical/pharma, OEM, retail and heavy equipment. Annual freight volume per organization ranges from $40 million to over $2 billion. The diversity of shippers and aggregate volume provide a statistically valid representation of North American shipping activity.

The Cass shipments index is a measure of the number of intra-continental freight shipments across North America, for everything from raw materials to finished goods. All domestic modes are included, with truckload moves accounting for more than 50% of shipments and LTL about 25%.

The expenditures index measures the total dollars spent on freight transportation and includes both contract and spot market rates.

‼️US freight shipments are COLLAPSING:

The Cass Freight Index, a key measure of freight volumes, FELL TO 0.93 in December, the lowest since the 2020 CRISIS low.

Excluding 2020, this is the lowest level since the Great Financial Crisis.

Freight shipments have declined for 3… pic.twitter.com/lAGnMs2x8t

— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) January 23, 2026

What Does the Chart Say?

None of the above. At lease a half-dozen people on X analyzed the above chart and made claims that should not be made, at least based off that chart.

About the only use for NSA data is year-over-year comparisons.

Cass Freight Index Shipments and Expenditures Year-Over-Year

Cass Freight Index Shipments and Expenditures NSA – Not Seasonally Adjusted – Year-over-Year

Year-Over-Year Shipments and Expenditures

• Shipments: -7.46 percent
• Expenditures: -0.60 percent

Let’s hone in on that.

Cass Freight Index Shipments and Expenditures Year-Over-Year Details

(Click on image to enlarge)

Cass Freight Index Shipments and Expenditures NSA – Not Seasonally Adjusted – Year-over-Year

Now we can make some legitimate weakness observations.

Year-over-year shipments have been negative every month starting February 2023. That’s 35 straight months of negative year-over-year declines in shipments.

Meanwhile, the trend in expenditures was getting better from November 2023 and went positive in April of 2025.

This is one heck of a divergence.

Cass Freight Index Shipment Detail Stacked

(Click on image to enlarge)

Cass Freight Index Shipments Year-over-Year and 2-year Stacked

2-year stacked shipments have been negative ever since March of 2023. That’s 34 straight months.

Cass Freight Index Expenditures Detail Stacked

(Click on image to enlarge)

Cass Freight Index Expenditures Year-over-Year and 2-year Stacked

2-year stacked expenditures have been negative ever since June of 2023. That’s 31 straight months.

However, the slope is up.

Let’s now discuss the key seasonally-adjusted chart we should have started with.

Cass Freight Index Shipments Seasonally Adjusted

(Click on image to enlarge)

Cass Freight Shipments Index Seasonally Adjusted and Not Seasonally Adjusted

It turns out the initial claims about weakness were valid after all.

That’s because the seasonally adjusted month-over-month weakness (not every month) lasted for years.

For example, seasonally-adjusted month-over-month shipments were negative 16 out of the last 22 months.

In turn, that’s what kept year-over-year NSA shipments negative for 35 straight months.

If anything, the seasonally adjusted chart looks even worse than the NSA chart. That’s because some of the steep rebounds on the NSA chart vanish when adjusted.

But we could not surmise any of that without understanding the seasonal adjustments.

Seasonally Adjusted Shipment Detail

(Click on image to enlarge)

Cass Freight Shipments Index Seasonally Adjusted

What Happened to Shipments?

• Steep plunge in Covid
• Steep rebound from Covid
• Sideways consolidation at good to very good levels from October 2020 until a near double-top peak at 1.24 in August of 2022.
• From August 2022 it has been mostly downhill with tiny bounces

That is the clearest chart yet of what’s going on. And you cannot see that with NSA data because the NSA rebounds look much stronger than they are.

Seasonally Adjusted Expenditures Detail

(Click on image to enlarge)

Seasonally adjusted expenditures have been mostly flat since January of 2024.

Cass commented “The flattish results of the past few months were a combination of lower shipments and higher rates. With shipments down considerably more than overall spending, we can infer higher freight costs.”

However, it’s more than a few months. For two years, expenditures have been flat despite declining shipments and falling diesel prices.

If anything, the divergence hints at a bit of stagflation. It also says shippers will not ship at a loss. If they do, they soon go out of business.

Looking Ahead

Cass: “While the soft volume environment persists, after considerable destocking in Q4’25, we think the Supreme Court decision on IEEPA tariffs could provide a positive catalyst for freight demand.”

The Cass observation on the IEEPA tariffs seems reasonable, at first glance, especially if the Court orders refunds.

But Trump is likely to respond with other tariffs, and the Court may not order refunds.

Nonetheless, let’s assume tariff cancellation and refunds. What then?

The SA shipments chart shows tariff front-running for two months barely made a dent in shipments. So while we may get a bounce, the better question is how long.

IEEPA tariff cancellation will not impact steel, aluminum, and other goods used as manufacturing inputs.

The labor market is anemic. It’s only high-end spending and AI that’s realistically keeping the economy afloat.

All of those will be more important than the tariff decision.

The SA shipments chart looks horrible, and there is no clear reason to believe a change is on the horizon.

But as they say, making predictions is difficult, especially about the future.

Related Posts

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My take then was 75-25 against Trump. I expect a 6-3 ruling. Click for an analysis justice-by-justice.

I am still 75-25. Nothing has changed.

January 6, 2026: If the Supreme Court Rejects Trump’s Tariffs, What Are His Options?

I count seven options Trump is likely to try. There are serious problems with all of them.

January 13, 2026: If the Supreme Court Rejects Trump’s Tariffs, How Big Might Refunds Be?

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I doubt the Supreme Court takes Trump’s Canada tariff threat into consideration. But I hope they do. It’s relevant.

Regardless, if a full-blown trade war with Canada erupts, it will not be good for shipping or the economy.

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