Weekly Unemployment Claims: 1.42M, Down 55K From Last Week

Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:

COVID-19 Impact
The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment. This report includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.

In the week ending June 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,427,000, a decrease of 55,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 1,480,000 to 1,482,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,503,750, a decrease of 117,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 1,620,750 to 1,621,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 13.2 percent for the week ending June 20, unchanged from the previous week's revised rate. The previous week's rate was revised down by 0.2 from 13.4 to 13.2 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 20 was 19,290,000, an increase of 59,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 291,000 from 19,522,000 to 19,231,000. The 4-week moving average was 19,854,000, a decrease of 494,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 72,750 from 20,421,250 to 20,348,500. [See full report]

This morning's seasonally adjusted 1.427M new claims, down 55K from the previous week's revised figure, was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 1.355M.

Here is a close look at the data over the decade (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend in relation to the last recession.

Unemployment Claims since 2007

 

As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.

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