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A wave of caution swept through markets in the first week of November, thus putting a chill on the latest rally. Technology and growth ETFs, which had powered returns through October, led the declines as heavyweight benchmarks like QQQM (-3.5%) and XLK (-4.6%) sold off sharply. Defensive pockets such as Energy (XLE +1.6%), Staples (XLP +1.4%), and Financials (XLF +1.2%) managed modest gains, hinting that investors sought safety amid profit-taking and renewed correction fears. Overall, sector breadth turned negative as large-caps lost momentum and small-caps struggled to hold ground.  

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Strategy Note

The market leadership for the first 10 months of this year endured a dramatic reversal last week, the first trading week of November 2025. Remarks made at the Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit in Hong Kong on November 4, 2025, helped shape the downbeat week. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick both predicted potential stock market corrections of 10–20%. Even economist Ed Yardeni left the bullish camp.

This happened to coincide with one of the market benchmark ETFs we reference most, changing its ticker symbol following a slight name change by SPDR brand owner State Street. The new name is State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (SPYM), replacing SPLG. As our longtime readers know, SPY uses an outdated and more expensive structure that leaves it unable to defray costs and forces them to charge a higher fee than SPYM. The result has averaged more than 13 basis points (0.13%) in total return since SPYM was brought to market as SPLG in 2018.

None of these facts, however, could prevent the newly christened SPYM from falling 2.2%. IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF, fared just slightly better, losing 1.8% on the week.

In terms of market segment benchmark ETFs, last week’s relative performance was nearly a mirror image of the rank orderings of the first 10 months. Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) finished on top with the only positive weekly return of the equity index ETFs at +0.2%, while growth-oriented ETFs lagged sharply — Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) lost 3.8%, and Invesco Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQM) fell 4.0%.

Foreign developed markets held up better with iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) losing just 0.3%, while iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) declined 2.2%. One ETF that did not reverse course was Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU), which continued to perform steadily with a 0.6% gain. Gold (GLDM) rebounded slightly from its late-October slide, losing only 0.3%. In contrast, Bitcoin — via iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) — plunged 10.3%, resembling a textbook correction rather than a “store of value.”

We all know the difference between success and failure in capital markets comes down to timing. We will admit one piece of bad timing last week when we said we did not expect Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) to rebound any time soon — it ended up being one of just three gainers among the 11 SPDR sector ETFs.  It was up 1.3%.

This week, over 400 listed companies will report earnings, though only nine are part of the S&P 500 as the season winds down. The largest include Disney (DIS), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY). The first two carry Buy (4) ratings under our model, while AMAT and OXY are rated Hold (3). One notable downgrade this week was Zillow Group (ZG), which slipped to a 3 (Hold).

Will this be another profit-taking week resulting in another sell-off? It’s certainly possible, but for now, we remain guardedly optimistic.

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