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GBP/USD

The British pound rallied a bit during the trading week, as it has been reaching toward the 200-week EMA. If it can break higher, then the market could go looking to the 1.30 level. Although I think that is likely to be the outcome, I also recognize that we could see some sideways price action over the next couple of weeks.

Underneath, the 1.2650 level should continue to offer support. In general, this is a market that I think may continue to favor the upside, but whether or not we see momentum during vacation season is a completely different question altogether.

EUR/USD

The euro fell rather hard during the trading week, and it has recently been seen hanging about the 1.09 level. The market appears to be testing a major uptrend line, which is the bottom of a huge channel, one that traders have been paying attention to for a while.

If it can turn around and break above the top of the candlestick for the week, then it’s likely that it could go looking to the 200-week EMA. If we were to see a break above there, then the euro would likely take off to the upside. On the other hand, if it were to turn around and break down below the 50-week EMA, then it could drop down to the 1.06 level.

USD/CHF

The US dollar rallied rather significantly against the Swiss franc again this week, as we continue to see the US dollar pick up a bit of strength. At this point, we have a lot to pay attention to, with the 0.89 level being a crucial one, but if it can break above the 0.90 level, we could see a huge move to the upside over the longer-term.

Keep an eye on the US dollar overall and remember that it is at a major bottom on the monthly chart. I do hold a long position now, but it’s a small one that I’m basically using to earn a bit of swap at the end of each day.

USD/CAD

The US dollar rallied significantly against the Canadian dollar recently, even though oil has been a bit strong. At this point, I think the market is trying to reach the 1.3650 level, an area that has been resistant previously.

If it can break above there, then the market is likely to go looking to the 1.38 level above, which is the top of the overall consolidation area. Underneath, the 1.33 level could offer some support.

USD/JPY

The US dollar rallied significantly during the trading week to test the JPY146.55 level. This is an area that has been important previously, and therefore if we were to see a break above there, then the market could likely continue going higher, but this wouldn't be an easy move.

All things being equal, I think a short-term pullback could offer a lot of buying opportunities since there is a significant amount of swap to be had at the end of the day. The Bank of Japan continues to be ultra-loose with its monetary policy, so I don’t have any interest in trying to fight this uptrend.

Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 initially tried to rally during the trading week, testing the 15,250 level, before rolling over again. The market then fell toward the 14,600 level, which is where a little bit of support can be seen.

This is an area that previously had served as resistance, and I think there is a possibility of a little bit of a bounce. However, if we were to see a break down below the weekly low, then I think this would open the possibility of a move to the 14,000 level.

Silver

Silver had been noisy during the week, but it appears ready to settle down with a hammer. This is a bullish sign, or at the very least a stable one. I think if the market can check out the top of the weekly candlestick, it could then go looking to the $25 level.

After that, the metal could even move towards the $25.50 level, or maybe even the $26 level. On the other hand, if it were to turn around and break down below the $22 level, then silver would likely fall all the way down to the $20 level.

US Oil

The US oil market had fallen significantly during the week, but it appears to have tested the 50-week EMA and the $80 level. If it can recapture the $82 level, then I think it could eventually break out to the upside. Remember that Saudi Arabia is willingly cutting back 1 million barrels per day in supply, and right now it looks like that is still the focus of the markets.

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