Voters Have Spoken, Now Markets Speak: Part II
Read Part I: Voters Have Spoken, Now Markets Speak
Just because it's so doesn't make it right.
This morning's premarket message was pretty much on the mark as the US stock market subsequently rallied. The question becomes: Given all the uncertainty a Trump presidency brings, why the rally? To help explain one of the key reasons, the following chart from Moody's should be enlightening.
Published before the yesterday's election results, what you see are the projected economic impacts on US GDP should Mr. Trump's economic policies be adopted (which they unquestionably will be). What is important to note in the chart is the projected short-term bump to GDP for next year, which, when coupled with an anticipated rise in corporate earnings for 2017 (+11.9% operating earnings for the S&P 500), helps justify an already overvalued market maintaining - and possibly expanding - its condition. (Given the short-term nature of many financial markets' participants, the subsequent years' forecasts are a little too far out there to be of interest to many investment professionals.)
Note: If there was any doubt as to what most traditionally trained professional investors consider the primary driver of stocks - the discounted cash model inputs of earnings, growth of earnings and ...
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Thanks for sharing
Two issues for me. The senate is not interested in infrastructure programs or it will look like it stopped Obama on purpose. Second, Lambert says we are at the end of the business cycle, so it would seem like the party is over before it starts.
This is interesting considering so many people were saying that a #Trump victory would crush the market. Seems that has proven to be unfounded, but at least I now understand why. This election has been filled with surprises.