VIPShop Holdings Earnings: Investors Aren’t Buying It
VIPShop Holdings (VIPS) didn’t do half bad with its second quarter earnings report released on Tuesday, but investors didn’t seem all too pleased.
The stock took a dive in the wake of its Tuesday morning earnings announcement, even though its numbers were rather strong. It was trading down about 10% for the day one hour ahead of market close.
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Vishop Holdings vips
VIPShop's net revenues increase 77.6% YOY
VIPShop reported a 77.6% year-over-year increase in net revenues to $1.45 billion (Rmb9.02 billion), 1% above Bloomberg consensus. Gross profit climbed by 78.6% to $363 million (Rmb2.3 billion), and earnings per average diluted share were 13% of consensus. The company issued better-than-expected third quarter guidance as well.
Analysts, by and large, took a rather positive view of the Chinese e-commerce company’s second quarter numbers.
“The 2Q2015 result and 3Q15 guidance are both better than expected, and we believe 3Q guidance could be conservative,” analysts at Barclays PLC (NYSE:BCS) (LON:BARC) wrote in a first look note on Tuesday.
In a separate note, they called the period “a somewhat relieving quarter” for VIPShop. They maintained their rating on the stock at overweight but dropped their price target to $30 from $32.
“As we approach stronger 4Q seasonality with more established warehouse infrastructure in place this year, together with stepped-up marketing budget to more aggressively acquiring new users, we expect VIPS to deliver sustainable growth into 2016,” they wrote.
Analysts at Jefferies also had a positive reaction and noted that minimal impact is anticipated in VIPShop’s third quarter guidance. “2Q15 revenue was in-line with a strong profit beat,” they wrote.
“High-quality customers and larger ticket size on mobile drove growth. We expect to see solid margin expansion given disciplined cost control.”
They maintained their buy rating and price target of $35.00 on VIPShop.
So why the post-earnings dive? A couple firms offered up potential explanations.
Analysts at Credit Suisse Group AG (ADR) (NYSE:CS) said that overall, they do not view VIPShop’s second quarter results as disappointing. However, they acknowledged investor reactions were a mixed bag.
“Investors we talked to have rather divided interpretations on the 2Q print/3Q guidance. We think this shows that the normalization of expectations has not completed yet,” they wrote.
Daiwa Capital Markets mentioned a perceived lack of positive catalysts for the stock. “We think the market has taken a view that most of the growth story of VIPShop has been priced in and that there are limited catalysts to drive up the share price,” they wrote. “We beg to differ. We believe VIPShop offers 1) best-in-class transaction value and earnings-growth momentum; 2) healthy margins; and 3) expansion into new categories.”
VIPShop Holdings - Some Analysts Sing a Different Tune
While most analysts remain positive on VIPShop, others have been sounding the alarm bells on the company for quite some time.
In May, Mirtha Forensic Research released a scathing report on the China-based online retailer and accused the company of manipulating its financials.
Another firm, J Capital Research, has raised concerned about VIPShop as well. In May, it dropped its price target on the company to 0 in a research report.
“When you look at the model and listen to the story, you think it really just doesn’t make sense. So we started to look at the company, and we found a lot of stuff,” said J Capital Research analyst Anne Stevenson-Yang in an interview at the time.
The firm issued another warning on VIPShop in a separate report in June.
“We believe that VIPShop is overstating its revenue and diverting capital investment into companies that have not been reported to the investors and in some cases are privately owned by members of the management team,” Stevenson-Yang wrote.
Disclosure: None.
I disagree. VIPS ER was excellent - overall market reaction to China devaluation combined w/ retailer panic dump.