USD/MXN Price Analysis: Remains Below 23.6% Fibo. Hurdle Near Mid-16.00s, Or Weekly High

The USD/MXN pair attracts some buyers for the third successive day on Thursday, albeit lacks bullish conviction and remains below the weekly top, around the 16.50-16.55 area touched the previous day.

The aforementioned area represents the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-April downfall and should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. A sustained strength beyond might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the USD/MXN pair to the next relevant hurdle near the 16.65-16.70 supply zone, or the 38.2% Fibo. level. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for a move towards challenging the 16.85 confluence hurdle, comprising the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibo. level.

Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart – though have been recovering – are still holding in the negative territory and suggest that any meaningful upside might still be seen as a selling opportunity. This, in turn, warrants some caution for bullish traders and before confirming that the USD/MXN pair has bottomed out in the near term. In the meantime, the 16.30-16.25 area, or the lowest level since August 2015, is likely to protect the immediate downside, below which spot prices could slide to test the 16.00 round-figure mark.

The hotter US consumer inflation figures released on Wednesday forced investors to push back expectations for the first interest rate cut to September from June. Moreover, the markets are now pricing in the possibility of less than two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024, which assists the US Dollar (USD) to stand tall near the YTD peak. This should assist the USD/MXN pair to defend the aforementioned handle, which if broken decisively should pave the way for the extension of an over a two-month-old downtrend witnessed from the YTD peak touched in January.

 

USD/MXN daily chart

(Click on image to enlarge)

fxsoriginal

 

USD/MXN

OVERVIEW
Today last price 16.4575
Today Daily Change 0.0161
Today Daily Change % 0.10
Today daily open 16.4414

 

TRENDS
Daily SMA20 16.609
Daily SMA50 16.8549
Daily SMA100 16.9958
Daily SMA200 17.1756

 

LEVELS
Previous Daily High 16.5213
Previous Daily Low 16.3021
Previous Weekly High 16.6737
Previous Weekly Low 16.4403
Previous Monthly High 17.0655
Previous Monthly Low 16.5116
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 16.4375
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 16.3858
Daily Pivot Point S1 16.3219
Daily Pivot Point S2 16.2024
Daily Pivot Point S3 16.1027
Daily Pivot Point R1 16.5411
Daily Pivot Point R2 16.6408
Daily Pivot Point R3 16.7602

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Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not ...

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