The USD/JPY price analysis still points South as the yen strengthens due to increased safe-haven demand. Investors fear a faster-than-expected US economic downturn but remain cautious ahead of the US nonfarm payroll report.

The yen has just ended a bullish month and is extending these gains into August. Notably, July ended with a 10bps rate hike from the Bank of Japan. At the same time, the central bank announced plans to reduce its bond purchases, indicating confidence in Japan’s economic recovery. 

The yen rally extended into August as investors raised bets on Fed rate cuts. Notably, the US central bank has signaled the start of rate cuts in September. However, it is conditional that inflation continues to decline. Still, it is a big step towards lower borrowing costs. 

The most recent boost to Fed rate cut expectations came after downbeat economic data. Business activity in the US manufacturing sector fell to an eight-month low, and the ISM PMI dropped from 48.5 in June to 46.8 in July. Consequently, fears of a slowdown in the economy increased. Initially, investors were confident that the Fed would achieve a soft landing, where inflation would fall without excessively hurting the economy. However, that might not be the case. 

Moreover, US unemployment claims reached an 11-month high of 249,000. By the end of the day, markets were pricing in a higher 27.5% chance of a 50bps Fed cut in September. Furthermore, this outlook could strengthen with the upcoming nonfarm payrolls. Economists expect slower job growth in July. 

USD/JPY key events today

• US average hourly earnings
• US nonfarm payrolls
• US unemployment rate

USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bears eye the 148.04 level in new swing

(Click on image to enlarge)

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has made new lows after breaking below the 152.01 support level. The price trades in a developed downtrend, making consistent lower highs and lows. At the same time, it has respected the 30-SMA as resistance, showing bears are in the lead. 

The new swing is approaching the 148.04 critical level. Here, it might pause as bears rest before pulling back or falling. The downtrend will continue as long as the price stays below the SMA.

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