• Despite some selling pressure at the end of last week's trading, the USD/JPY pair has given up some of its highest gains in 38 years around the 161.95 resistance level, retreating to 160.33 and closing the week steady around 160.75.
• Performance may remain the same until there is Japanese intervention in the forex markets to prevent further collapse of the yen exchange rate, as well as the reaction to the release of US inflation figures and the testimony of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

On the economic calendar data front this week, in the United States, attention will be paid to the release of the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index data for June, followed by the semi-annual testimony of the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on monetary policy at the Senate Banking Committee. In addition, investors will closely follow the US Consumer Confidence Report in Michigan.

Meanwhile, the US Consumer Price Index report for June is expected to show consumer prices rising 0.1% from May, after a flat reading, while the core CPI is likely to rise 0.2% on a monthly basis, as it did in May. Also, producer prices are expected to rise 0.1%, rebounding from a 0.2% decline in May, while core producer prices are likely to rise 0.2%, after a flat reading in May. In addition, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver his semi-annual monetary policy testimony before Congress, and other Fed officials are also scheduled to speak during the week.

Also, in focus will be the preliminary numbers on US consumer confidence in Michigan and the NFIB business optimism index. Finally, earnings season will kick off with results from major banks including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Bank of New York Mellon.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today

The USD/JPY pair has now declined to trade slightly below the 100-hour moving average. As a result, the pair appears to be moving towards the oversold levels of the 14-hour RSI. In the short term, based on the hourly chart, the USD/JPY pair appears to be trading within a descending channel. Recently, the 14-hour RSI has declined to avoid overbought levels. Therefore, bears will target extended pullbacks around 160.29 or lower at the 159.73 support. On the other hand, bulls will target profits around 161.35 or higher at the 161.90 resistance.

In the long term, based on the daily chart performance, the USD/JPY pair continues to trade within an ascending channel. However, the 14-day RSI recently retreated, recovering from overbought conditions. Thus, bearish traders (the bears) will target extended declines around 159.22 or lower at the 157.43 support level. On the other hand, bullish traders (the bulls) will look to continue the current uptrend towards 162.41 or higher to the 164.12 resistance level.

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